How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?
If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational
Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- John H. Cochrane, 1997.
"Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37.
- John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Where is the Market Going? Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories," NBER Working Papers 6207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H Cochrane, 2003. "Where is the Market Going: Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000762, David K. Levine.
- John B. Carlson & Kevin H. Sargent, 1997. "The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-12.
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
- Dean Croushore, 1996. "Inflation forecasts: how good are they?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 15-25. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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