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Internal and External Determinants of Housing Price Booms in Hong Kong, China

Author

Listed:
  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Alvin Chiu

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

Hong Kong, China’s housing market witnessed dramatic appreciations recently, with the price index for private domestic housing units being 3 times higher than 10 years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors. By providing a theoretical model and empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices, we find that changes in housing price index reinforce price trends in the long term. Hong Kong, China’s dollar quantitative easing, and the gross domestic product of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are positively related to housing prices and negatively to lending. The inability to increase supplies in response to rising demand since 2003 has also much to do with the skyrocketing prices. Moreover, mortgage-to-total loans value is shrinking due to the unaffordability of housing units at current prices. This trend has to be tackled in time, otherwise the PRC may incur severe consequences similar to Japan’s experience in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Alvin Chiu, 2019. "Internal and External Determinants of Housing Price Booms in Hong Kong, China," ADBI Working Papers 948, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0948
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing bubble; housing prices; housing market; quantitative easing (QE); monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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