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Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and Economic Activity

In: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics

  • Olivier J. Blanchard

There is widespread feeling that current deficits, in Europe and the U.S.,may hurt rather than help the recovery. This paper examines some of the issues involved, through a sequence of three models.The first model focuses on sustainability and characterizes its determinants. It suggests that the issue of sustainability may indeed ber elevant in some countries.The second model focuses on the effects of fiscal policy on real interestrates, and in particular on the relative importance of the level of deficits andthe level of debt in determining interest rates.The third model focuses on the effects of fiscal policy on the speed of the recovery. It shows how a sharply increasing fiscal expansion might be initially contractionary rather than expansionary.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Georges de Ménil & Robert J. Gordon, 1991. "International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number de_m91-2, Abril.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 11687.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11687
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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