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On Creditor Seniority and Sovereign Bond Prices in Europe

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  • Westermann, Frank
  • Steinkamp, Sven

Abstract

The recent increase of interest rate spreads in Europe and their apparent detachment from underlying fundamental variables has generated a debate on multiple equilibria in the sovereign bond market (see De Grauwe and Ji (2012)). We critically evaluate this hypothesis, by pointing towards an alternative explanation: the increasing share of senior lenders (IMF, ECB, EFSF, etc.) in the total outstanding government debt of countries in crisis. We illustrate the close relationship between senior tranche lending including Target2 balances and recent developments in the sovereign bond market, both graphically and in a formal regression analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Westermann, Frank & Steinkamp, Sven, 2013. "On Creditor Seniority and Sovereign Bond Prices in Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79848, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79848
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures – Magic Wand or Tiger by the Tail?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0447, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Stephen Wright & Charmaine Portelli, 2018. "The True Size of the ECB: New Insights from National Central Bank Balance Sheets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    3. Christoph Schmidt & Benjamin Weigert, 2013. "Weathering the crisis and beyond: perspectives for the Euro area," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(4), pages 564-595, August.
    4. Potrafke, Niklas & Reischmann, Markus, 2014. "Explosive Target balances of the German Bundesbank," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 439-444.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0447 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bahaj, Saleem A., 2014. "Systemic sovereign risk: macroeconomic implications in the euro area," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58110, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Valeriya Dinger & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2014. "The Tragedy of the Commons and Inflation Bias in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 71-91, February.
    8. Christoph M. Schmidt & Benjammin Weigert, 2013. "Weathering the Crisis and Beyond: Perspectives for the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 0409, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Belke Ansgar, 2013. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures – Magic Wand or Tiger by the Tail?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(3), pages 341-368, December.
    11. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    12. de Haan, Leo & Hessel, Jeroen & van den End, Jan Willem, 2014. "Are European sovereign bonds fairly priced? The role of modelling uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 239-267.
    13. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji,Yuemei, 2012. "What Germany should fear most is its own fear: An analysis of Target2 and current account imbalances," CEPS Papers 7280, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    14. repec:grz:wpaper:2013-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0409 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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