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Multilateral Loans and Interest Rates: Further Evidence on the Seniority Conundrum

Listed author(s):
  • Sven Steinkamp
  • Frank Westermann

During Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis, interest rate spreads have been highly correlated with the share of multilateral loans that were considered senior to private markets. As both variables are potentially endogenous, we follow two different approaches to analyze the direction of causality. First, we use a set of IV regressions where the differences between sovereign ratings serve as instruments. Second, we analyze a new panel-survey dataset on seniority and interest rate expectations. In both approaches, we find evidence for the seniority conundrum – i.e., a positive impact of multilateral loans on interest rate spreads.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2016/wp-cesifo-2016-11/cesifo1_wp6225.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 6225.

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Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6225
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  1. Saravia, Diego, 2010. "On the role and effects of IMF seniority," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1024-1044, October.
  2. Michael P. Dooley & Mark R. Stone, 1992. "Endogenous Creditor Seniority and External Debt Values," IMF Working Papers 92/57, .
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  10. Christian Seiler, 2012. "The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center - A Guide for Researchers," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 138, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  11. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
  12. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2009. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of Seniority -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 879-902.
  13. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison & Yothin Jinjarak, 2011. "What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 17407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Guimaraes, Bernardo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2006. "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: A model of IMF's catalytic finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 441-471, April.
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  16. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Paper Series 1347, European Central Bank.
  17. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:67-80 is not listed on IDEAS
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