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Multilateral loans and interest rates: further evidence on the seniority conundrum


  • Sven Steinkamp

    () (Osnabrueck University)

  • Frank Westermann

    () (Osnabrueck University)


During Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis, interest rate spreads have been highly correlated with the share of multilateral loans that were considered senior to private markets. As both variables are potentially endogenous, we follow two different approaches to analyze the direction of causality. First, we use a set of IV regressions where the differences between sovereign ratings serve as instruments. Second, we analyze a new panel-survey dataset on seniority and interest rate expectations. In both approaches, we find evidence for the seniority conundrum – i.e., a positive impact of multilateral loans on interest rate spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2016. "Multilateral loans and interest rates: further evidence on the seniority conundrum," Working Papers 105, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 30 Nov 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0105

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    More about this item


    Government bond spreads; creditor seniority; recovery rate; interest rate; sovereign debt;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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