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Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis

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  • Dreher, Axel
  • Vaubel, Roland

Abstract

By combining expansionary open-market operations with sales of foreign exchange, the central bank can expand the monetary base without depreciating the exchange rate. Thus, if there is a monetary political business cycle, sales of foreign exchange are especially likely before elections. Our panel data analysis for up to 149 countries in 1975-2001 supports this hypothesis. Foreign exchange reserves relative to trend GDP depend negatively on the pre-election index. The relationship is significant and robust irrespective of the type of electoral variable, our choice of control variables and the splitting of the sample period. However, it is not significant in a narrow sample of high income countries. Foreign exchange reserves also drop relative to the domestic component of the monetary base prior to elections while the overall monetary stimulus is positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:5:p:755-775
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    Cited by:

    1. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    2. repec:got:cegedp:115 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Reischmann, Markus, 2016. "Creative accounting and electoral motives: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 243-257.
    4. Toke Aidt & Zareh Asatryan & Lusine Badalyan & Friedrich Heinemann, 2020. "Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 409-425, July.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    6. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    7. Oriola, Hugo, 2023. "Political monetary cycles: An empirical study," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:668-692 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H.R. Siemers, 2007. "Does Terror Threaten Human Rights? Evidence from Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-156, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Pablo Garofalo, 2013. "Electoral cycles in international reserves: Evidence from Latin America and the OECD," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 526, Universidad del CEMA.
    12. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    13. Ahmet Emrah Tayyar, 2017. "Poli̇ti̇cal Exchange Rate Fluctuati̇ons Speci̇fi̇c To Fi̇xed Exchange Rate Regi̇mes: A Case Study On Turkey," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 4-14, April.
    14. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2012. "Globalization, Economic Freedom, and Human Rights," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 56(3), pages 516-546, June.
    15. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    16. Frigerio, Marco & Vandone, Daniela, 2020. "European development banks and the political cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2010. "When is a central bank governor replaced? Evidence based on a new data set," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 766-781, September.
    18. Sebastian Florian Enea & Silvia Palaºcã, 2012. "Globalization Versus Segregation - Business Cycles Synchronization In Europe," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 668-692, December.
    19. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," KOF Working papers 07-176, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange interventions Political business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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