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Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?

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Listed:
  • Toke Aidt
  • Zareh Asatryan
  • Lusine Badalyan
  • Friedrich Heinemann

Abstract

We study the short-run effect of elections on monetary aggregates in a sample of 85 low and middle income democracies (1975-2009). We find an increase in the growth rate of M1 during election months of about one tenth of a standard deviation. A similar effect can neither be detected in established OECD democracies nor in other months. We argue that the cycle is related to systemic vote buying which requires significant amounts of cash at election times. The finely timed increase in M1 is consistent with this and it cannot be, fully, accounted for by alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Toke Aidt & Zareh Asatryan & Lusine Badalyan & Friedrich Heinemann, 2015. "Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5508, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5508
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    1. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:01:n:s0217590816500107 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2017. "Optimal Term Length For An Overconfident Central Banker," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 179-192, March.
    3. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    political business cycles; vote buying; monetary economies;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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