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Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Antonio David
  • Can Sever

Abstract

We examine electoral cycles in tax reforms using monthly data over the period of 1990-2018 for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets. We show that governments tend to avoid announcing tax reforms during the months running up to elections. In addition, they become more likely to announce those reforms in the first few months following elections, indicating that “political capital” plays a role in the timing of reforms. These patterns are broad-based regarding the changes in tax base and rate, and for various types of taxes. We also find that the pre-election decrease in the likelihood of tax reform announcements is stronger in emerging markets, and weaker in the countries with relatively better institutional quality. Finally, our results indicate that neither fiscal rules nor IMF programs appear to have differential effects on electoral cycles in tax reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Antonio David & Can Sever, 2022. "Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2022/216, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/216
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    Cited by:

    1. Can Sever & Emekcan Yücel, 2025. "Electoral cycles in inequality," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 23(2), pages 433-456, June.
    2. Lepers, Etienne, 2025. "Surfing the credit wave: Government popularity as driver of credit cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA).
    3. Jorge Martínez-Vázquez, 2025. "The Art of Tax Reform," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 255(4), pages 87-131, December.
    4. David, Antonio C. & Sever, Can, 2025. "Unpleasant surprises? Elections and tax news shocks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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