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Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Political Business Cycle: A Panel Data Analysis

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  • Axel Dreher
  • Roland Vaubel

Abstract

By combining expansionary open market operations with sales of foreign exchange, the central bank can expand the monetary base without depreciating the exchange rate. Thus, if there is a monetary political business cycle, sales of foreign exchange are especially likely before elections. Our panel data analysis for up to 146 countries in 1975-2001 supports this hypothesis. Foreign exchange reserves relative to trend GDP depend negatively on the pre election index. The relationship is significant and robust irrespective of the type of electoral variable, the choice of control variables and the estimation technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2007. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Political Business Cycle: A Panel Data Analysis," KOF Working papers 07-159, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:07-159
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005390255
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    1. repec:got:cegedp:115 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    4. Reischmann, Markus, 2016. "Creative accounting and electoral motives: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 243-257.
    5. Aidt, Toke & Asatryan, Zareh & Badalyan, Lusine & Heinemann, Friedrich, 2015. "Vote buying or (political) business (cycles) as usual?," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-017, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    6. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2012. "Globalization, Economic Freedom, and Human Rights," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 56(3), pages 516-546, June.
    7. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    8. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:668-692 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H.R. Siemers, 2007. "Does Terror Threaten Human Rights? Evidence from Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-156, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    10. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Pablo Garofalo, 2013. "Electoral cycles in international reserves: Evidence from Latin America and the OECD," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 526, Universidad del CEMA.
    11. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2010. "When is a central bank governor replaced? Evidence based on a new data set," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 766-781, September.
    12. Sebastian Florian Enea & Silvia Palaºcã, 2012. "Globalization Versus Segregation - Business Cycles Synchronization In Europe," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 668-692, December.
    13. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," KOF Working papers 07-176, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange interventions; Political business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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