IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cbu/jrnlec/y2017v2p4-14.html

Poli̇ti̇cal Exchange Rate Fluctuati̇ons Speci̇fi̇c To Fi̇xed Exchange Rate Regi̇mes: A Case Study On Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • AHMET EMRAH TAYYAR

    (ULUDAG UNIVERSITY, INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT)

Abstract

Based on political business cycle theories, governments manipulate the economy with macroeconomic policies to be re-elected. Thus, government’s uses of exchange rates in addition to monetary and fiscal policies create "Political Exchange Rate Fluctuations". The main objective of the present study is to determine the political exchange rate fluctuations during periods of fixed exchange rate implementation in Turkey. Since devaluations in countries that implement fixed exchange rates is an indicator of the failure of the government, devaluations are usually implemented after the elections. Eight of the nine devaluations implemented in Turkey between 1946-2001 were realized after the elections. Therefore, it is possible to discuss the existence of political exchange rate fluctuations under fixed exchange rate regimes in Turkey. Furthermore, devaluations based on the election date were discussed in the present study based on economic crises, the reforms implemented after the crises and the pursuits of individual-political gain by the central bank director.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmet Emrah Tayyar, 2017. "Poli̇ti̇cal Exchange Rate Fluctuati̇ons Speci̇fi̇c To Fi̇xed Exchange Rate Regi̇mes: A Case Study On Turkey," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 4-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2017:v:2:p:4-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.utgjiu.ro/revista/ec/pdf/2017-02/01_Tayyar.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, July.
    2. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
    3. Lobo, Bento J. & Tufte, David, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility: Does Politics Matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 351-365, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    2. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Meon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2001. "A Model of Exchange Rate Crises with Partisan Governments," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 517-535, October.
    4. Naveen Srinivasan & Vidya Mahambare & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Capital Controls, Exchange Market Intervention and International Reserve Accumulation in India," Working Papers 2015-103, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    5. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    6. John R. Freeman & Jude C. Hays & Helmut Stix, 1999. "Democracy and Markets: The Case of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 39, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Reischmann, Markus, 2016. "Creative accounting and electoral motives: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 243-257.
    8. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
    9. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    10. Hon Chung Hui, 2021. "Were Foreign Exchange Markets Reacting Negatively to Political Events? The Case of Malaysia," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 105-129, June.
    11. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan, 2008. "Reforming Aid: Toward More Predictable, Performance-Based Financing for Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2067-2081, October.
    12. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece.
    13. Mr. Wendell A. Samuel & Emilio Pineda & Mr. Mario Dehesa, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/077, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Masson, Paul R., 2008. "Erratum to "The euro and developing country finance: a survey" [North Am. J. Econ. Finance 19 (2) 2008 175-191]," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 349-349, December.
    15. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
    16. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Yeongseop, 2004. "International Reserves Management and Capital Mobility in a Volatile World: Policy Considerations and a Case Study of Korea," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt65p8p9qq, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    17. Oriola, Hugo, 2023. "Political monetary cycles: An empirical study," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Soro, Garbobiya Tuwe & Aras, Osman Nuri, 2021. "The Implication of Exchange Rate Volatility on Nigeria’s External Reserves: 1980-2020," MPRA Paper 108347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Aizenman, Joshua, 2005. "Ex ante carrots instead of ex post sticks: two examples," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1jw476fz, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2017:v:2:p:4-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ecobici Nicolae (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fetgjro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.