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Political Business Cycles in Industrialized Democratic Countries

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  • BYUNG HEE SOH

Abstract

SUMMARY An examination of the rates of income growth, inflation, and unemployment in twenty industrialized democratic countries reveals evidence of political business cycles. The money supply and government expenditures tend to show expansions near elections. Political business cycles are not readily detected in the countries with more extensive indexation or longer electoral terms. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Eine Untersuchung des Einkommenswachstums und der Inflations‐ und Arbeits‐losenrate in zwanzig industrialisierten demokratischen Lándern deutet auf politische Konjunkturzyklen hin. Geldvolumen und Regierungsausgaben neigen dazu, vor den Wahlen anzusteigen. Politische Konjunkturzyklen sind in den Lándern mit Teue‐rungsausgleich oder lángerer politischer Amtsdauer nicht so deutlich festzustellen. RÉSUMÉ L'étude des taux de croissance du revenu, de l'inflation et du chômage dans vingt pays démocratiques industrialisés révèle l'existence de cycles dans l'économie politique de ces pays. La masse monétaire et les dépenses publiques ont tendance à s'accroître à l'approche des périodes électorates. Les cycles de l'économie politique ne sont pas aisément décelés dans les pays à indexation plus étendue ou à mandats électoraux plus longs.

Suggested Citation

  • Byung Hee Soh, 1986. "Political Business Cycles in Industrialized Democratic Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 31-46, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:39:y:1986:i:1:p:31-46
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1986.tb01253.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Byung Soh, 1988. "Political instability and economic fluctuations in the Republic of Korea," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 259-274, June.
    2. Vaubel, Roland, 1999. "The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective," Discussion Papers 570, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    3. Chin-Tsai Lin & Yi-Hsien Wang, 2005. "An Analysis of Political Changes on Nikkei 225 Stock Returns and Volatilities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 169-183, May.
    4. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1995. "Cincuenta Años de Ciclo Político-Económico en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 32(96), pages 129-150.
    5. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
    6. Leertouwer, Erik & Maier, Philipp, 1999. "Who creates poltical business cycles? : (should central banks be blamed?)," Research Report 99E56, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. Leertouwer, Erik & Maier, Philipp, 2001. "Who creates political business cycles: should central banks be blamed?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 445-463, September.
    8. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2005. "The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(2), pages 395-409, October.
    9. Jac C. Heckelman & Hakan Berument, 1998. "Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 987-1000, April.
    10. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    11. Yi-Hsien Wang & Chin-Tsai Lin, 2009. "The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 237-248, March.
    12. repec:dgr:rugsom:99e56 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Vaubel, Roland, 1997. "The bureaucratic and partisan behavior of independent central banks: German and international evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-224, May.
    14. Yi-Hsien Wang & Chung-Chu Chuang, 2009. "Selecting the portfolio investment strategy under political structure change in United States," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(5), pages 845-854, September.
    15. Yi-Hsien Wang & Chin-Tsai Lin, 2008. "Empirical analysis of political uncertainty on TAIEX stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 545-550.
    16. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "El Ciclo Político-económico: Teoría, Evidencia y Extensión para una Economía Abierta," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 87-114.
    17. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    18. Jon Faust & John S. Irons, 1996. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 572, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
    20. Chin-Tsai Lin & Yi-Hsien Wang, 2007. "The impact of party alternative on the stock market: the case of Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 79-85.

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