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Regional debt in monetary unions: Is it inflationary?

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  • Cooper, Russell
  • Kempf, Hubert
  • Peled, Dan

Abstract

This paper studies the inflationary implications of interest bearing regional debt in a monetary union. Is this debt simply backed by future taxation with no inflationary consequences? Or will the circulation of region debt induce monetization by a central bank? We argue here that both outcomes can arise in equilibrium. In the model economy, there are multiple equilibria which reflect the perceptions of agents regarding the manner in which the debt obligations will be met. In one equilibrium, termed Ricardian, the future obligations are met with taxation by a regional government while in the other, termed Monetization, the central bank is induced to print money to finance the region's obligations. The multiplicity of equilibria reflects a commitment problem of the central bank. A key indicator of the selected equilibrium is the distribution of regional debt holdings. We show that regional governments, anticipating central bank financing of their debt obligations, have an incentive to create excessively large deficits. We use the model to assess the impact of some policy measures within a monetary union as well as dollarization.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooper, Russell & Kempf, Hubert & Peled, Dan, 2010. "Regional debt in monetary unions: Is it inflationary?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 345-358, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:54:y:2010:i:3:p:345-358
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    Cited by:

    1. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf & Dan Peled, 2009. "Insulation Impossible: Fiscal Spillovers in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 15176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath, 2015. "Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(4), pages 1727-1779.
    3. Sokolova, Anna, 2015. "Fiscal limits and monetary policy: default vs. inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 189-198.
    4. Sokolova, A., 2014. "Sovereign Risk and Monetary Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 56-82.
    5. Matheron, J. & Mojon, B. & Sahuc, J.G., 2012. "The sovereign debt crisis and monetary policy," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 155-167, April.
    6. Foresti, Pasquale, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal policies in interaction in monetary unions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69623, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Nadjeschda Arnold & Ray Rees, 2015. "The Sovereign Default Problem in the Eurozone: An Insurance-Based Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5389, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Russell Cooper, 2012. "Exit from a Monetary Union through Euroization: Discipline without Chaos," NBER Working Papers 17908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    10. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2013. "Stochastic debt sustainability indicators," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 97-121.
    11. Peter Spahn, 2016. "Central Bank Design in a Non-optimal Currency Union A Lender of Last Resort for Government Debt?," ROME Working Papers 201610, ROME Network.
    12. Cooper, R. & Kempf, H. & Peled, D., 2009. "Monetary rules and the spillover of regional fiscal policies in a federation," Working papers 233, Banque de France.
    13. Bignon, V. & Breton, R. & Rojas Breu, M., 2013. "Currency Union with and without Banking Union," Working papers 450, Banque de France.
    14. Antoine Camous & Russell Cooper, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Debt Fragility," NBER Working Papers 20650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Betty C. Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 2010-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    16. Nadjeschda Katharina Arnold, 2016. "The Sovereign Default Problem in the Eurozone - Why Limited Liability Resulted in Excessive Debt Accumulation and How Insurance Can Counteract," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 66, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary union Inflation Regional deficits Commitment Multiple equilibria;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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