Stochastic debt sustainability indicators
This paper proposes indicators to assess government debt sustainability in the medium and long term. We follow the methodological approach by Bohn (2008) and distinguish three channels that contribute to sustainable government finances: economic growth, real interest payments and fiscal responses. We combine the estimated fiscal response with a stochastic debt simulation to create two indicators. The first captures the probability of debt-to-GDP ratios rising by more than 20 percentage points during a 10-year period. A government will fail on this indicator if its fiscal response to an increase in debt is not sufficient to control the swings in debt caused by shocks to real growth and interest payments. The second indicator captures the probability of debt levels being above 90% of GDP in 10 years. We estimate these indicators using historical data for nine OECD countries. We find that the probability of debt-to-GDP ratios rising by more than 20 percentage points in the next decade clearly identifies countries that have sustainability concerns: Italy, Spain, Portugal and Iceland, from those that do not: US, UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. JEL Classification: E4, E6, H0, H6
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lejour, Arjan & Lukkezen, Jasper & Veenendaal, Paul, 2010.
"Sustainability of Government Debt in the EU,"
30139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2010.
- Pier Carlo Padoan & Urban Sila & Paul van den Noord, 2012. "Avoiding Debt Traps: Financial Backstops and Structural Reforms," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 976, OECD Publishing.
- Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf & Dan Peled, 2008.
"Regional debt in monetary unions : is it inflationary ?,"
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
v08070, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Cooper, Russell & Kempf, Hubert & Peled, Dan, 2010. "Regional debt in monetary unions: Is it inflationary?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 345-358, April.
- Cooper, R. & Kempf, H. & Peled, D., 2007. "Regional Debt in Monetary Unions: Is it Inflationary?," Working papers 186, Banque de France.
- Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf & Dan Peled, 2008. "Regional Debt in Monetary Unions: Is it Inflationary ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344475, HAL.
- Hubert Kempf & Russell Cooper & Dan Peled, 2010. "Regional Debt in Monetary Unions: Is it Inflationary?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00468945, HAL.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015.
"The liquidation of government debt,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
- Carmen Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2015. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 15/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 16893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," Working Paper Series WP11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," BIS Working Papers 363, Bank for International Settlements.
- Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2005.
"Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1135-1146.
- Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2003. "Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 194, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2008. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2203-20, December.
- Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011.
"How Costly Are Debt Crises?,"
IMF Working Papers
11/280, International Monetary Fund.
- Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Grauwe, Paul, 2011. "Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," CEPS Papers 5523, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2012. "When is debt sustainable?," CPB Discussion Paper 212, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_127_0097. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.