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经济增长与政府债务的非线性研究及其政策治理
[Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Growth and Public Debt and Policy Governance]

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  • CAI, YIFEI
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    This paper empirically analyze the nonlinear relation between real output per capital and public debt by employing threshold cointegration method based on ARDL model. Empirical results show that there exists a threshold cointegration relationship between government debt and real output per capital. In case of the empirical results, cutting government debt could boost economic growth in the long term. However, the short term variation of government debt makes little impact on real output per capital. Comparatively speaking, human capital and investment rate and trade openness make larger influence on real output per capital. From the perspective of economic policy, the government should take full advantage of the fiscal policy to cut the government debt with the operation space of monetary policy being compressed.

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72783/1/MPRA_paper_72783.pdf
    File Function: original version
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 72783.

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    Date of creation: 05 Mar 2016
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72783
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    1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2001. "Emerging equity markets and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 465-504, December.
    2. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July.
    3. Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
    4. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers halshs-00700471, HAL.
    5. Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2010. "ADL tests for threshold cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 241-254, July.
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