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经济增长与政府债务的非线性研究及其政策治理
[Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Growth and Public Debt and Policy Governance]

Author

Listed:
  • CAI, YIFEI

Abstract

This paper empirically analyze the nonlinear relation between real output per capital and public debt by employing threshold cointegration method based on ARDL model. Empirical results show that there exists a threshold cointegration relationship between government debt and real output per capital. In case of the empirical results, cutting government debt could boost economic growth in the long term. However, the short term variation of government debt makes little impact on real output per capital. Comparatively speaking, human capital and investment rate and trade openness make larger influence on real output per capital. From the perspective of economic policy, the government should take full advantage of the fiscal policy to cut the government debt with the operation space of monetary policy being compressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Yifei, 2016. "经济增长与政府债务的非线性研究及其政策治理
    [Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Growth and Public Debt and Policy Governance]
    ," MPRA Paper 72783, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72783
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72783/1/MPRA_paper_72783.pdf
    File Function: original version
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2001. "Emerging equity markets and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 465-504, December.
    2. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July.
    3. Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
    4. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers halshs-00700471, HAL.
    5. Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2010. "ADL tests for threshold cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 241-254, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL threshold cointegration method; Economic growth; Public debt; Policy Governance;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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