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Evaluating the role of capital controls and monetary policy in emerging market crises

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  • Devereux, Michael B.
  • Yu, Changhua

Abstract

This paper explores the interactive role of optimal monetary policy and capital controls in dealing with ‘sudden-stop’ financial crises in emerging market economies. The model features collateral constraints embedding pecuniary externalities, as well as nominal rigidities in prices and wages. We explore the role of policy commitment and macro-prudential motives in the design of optimal monetary and capital market responses to crises, under alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that policy commitment is very important under flexible exchange rates, but commitment (to the path of capital taxes) is only of minor benefit under an exchange rate peg. As regards macro-prudential policy, we find the exact opposite. Under floating exchange rates, the optimal policy has almost no macro-prudential elements. On the other hand, when authorities are constrained by an exchange rate peg, macro-prudential policy is used aggressively as part of an optimal policy framework. An important additional finding is that the direction of capital controls is different under a fixed relative to a flexible exchange rate. With flexible exchange rates, policy makers impose inflow taxes immediately at the onset of a crisis. Under pegged exchange rates, they will impose capital inflow subsidies.

Suggested Citation

  • Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Evaluating the role of capital controls and monetary policy in emerging market crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 189-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:95:y:2019:i:c:p:189-211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.06.009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ottonello, Pablo & Perez, Diego J. & Varraso, Paolo, 2022. "Are collateral-constraint models ready for macroprudential policy design?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Bechlioulis, Alexandros & Economidou, Claire & Karamanis, Dimitrios & Konstantios, Dimitrios, 2023. "How important are capital controls in shaping innovation activity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2021. "Optimal capital account liberalization in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1041-1061.
    4. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Xing Fang & Yu Zhang, 2021. "An Analysis of the Dynamic Asymmetric Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the RMB Exchange Rate," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-4.
    6. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jia, Pengfei, 2020. "Capital controls and welfare with cross-border bank capital flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Globalization Institute Working Papers 405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 10 Sep 2021.
    8. Fan, Haichao & Gou, Qin & Peng, Yuchao & Xie, Wenjing, 2020. "Spillover effects of capital controls on capital flows and financial risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    9. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 18-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    10. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "The Domestic Impacts And Spillovers Of Capital Controls," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 31-66, October –.
    11. Paolo Cavallino & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "Capital flows and monetary policy trade-offs in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 1032, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Davis, J. Scott & Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2023. "Sudden stops and optimal foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Chokri Zehri & David McMillan, 2020. "Restrictive policy impacts in emerging economies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1815979-181, January.
    14. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.
    15. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)," Department of Economics Working Papers 19-02-rev1, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sudden stops; Pecuniary externality; Monetary policy; Capital controls; Commitment versus discretion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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