IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v88y2024ics0927538x2400310x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of financial sanctions on economic policy uncertainty: Global evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Xue-Ying
  • He, Wei
  • Duan, Hai-Peng
  • Fan, Rui

Abstract

Based on panel data from 20 countries from 1991 to 2020, this study uses the difference-in-differences method to empirically test the impact of financial sanctions on economic policy uncertainty in sanctioned countries. The study shows that financial sanctions have significantly increased the economic policy uncertainty of sanctioned countries. This impact is mainly achieved through mechanisms such as increasing the national risk of sanctioned countries, reducing their exchange rate stability, and restricting their international trade. The study also shows that the impact of financial sanctions on economic policy uncertainty is more significant in countries with a high degree of financial globalization and a heavy foreign debt burden. The effect of multilateral sanctions is also more significant than unilateral sanctions. This study provides useful inspiration for policy responses to financial sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xue-Ying & He, Wei & Duan, Hai-Peng & Fan, Rui, 2024. "The impact of financial sanctions on economic policy uncertainty: Global evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x2400310x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102558
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X2400310X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102558?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Chen, Min & Zhu, Zhaobo & Han, Peiwen & Chen, Bo & Liu, Jia, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and analyst behaviours: Evidence from the United Kingdom," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    5. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    6. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2012. "Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 129-138.
    7. Wang, Yiwei & Wang, Ke & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "The impacts of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 58-65.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    9. Hannes Hofmann & Martin C. Schleper & Constantin Blome, 2018. "Conflict Minerals and Supply Chain Due Diligence: An Exploratory Study of Multi-tier Supply Chains," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 115-141, January.
    10. Liu, Jinjing & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and the cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Guojin Chen & Runze Zhang & Xiangqin Zhao, 2019. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Risk Features," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 14(3), pages 461-495, September.
    13. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    15. T. Clifton Morgan & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2023. "Economic Sanctions: Evolution, Consequences, and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 3-30, Winter.
    16. Marco Cipriani & Linda S. Goldberg & Gabriele La Spada, 2023. "Financial Sanctions, SWIFT, and the Architecture of the International Payment System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 31-52, Winter.
    17. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    18. Kong, Qunxi & Li, Rongrong & Wang, Ziqi & Peng, Dan, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment decisions: Dilemma or opportunity?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Abraham L. Newman & Qi Zhang, 2024. "Secondary effects of financial sanctions: Bank compliance and economic isolation of non-target states," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 995-1021, May.
    20. Blind, Knut & Cremers, Katrin & Mueller, Elisabeth, 2009. "The influence of strategic patenting on companies' patent portfolios," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 428-436, March.
    21. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    22. Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Evaluating the role of capital controls and monetary policy in emerging market crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 189-211.
    23. Ahn, Daniel P. & Ludema, Rodney D., 2020. "The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    24. Nasreen, Samia & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Abbas, Qaisar, 2020. "How do financial globalization, institutions and economic growth impact financial sector development in European countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    25. Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2019. "A new economic policy uncertainty index for Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 64-67.
    26. Sohag, Kazi & Kalina, Irina & Elsayed, Ahmed H., 2023. "Financial stress in Russia: Exploring the impact of oil market shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    27. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2019. "The impact of economic sanctions on international trade: How do threatened sanctions compare with imposed sanctions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-26.
    28. Xuejun Jin & Ziqing Chen & Xiaolan Yang, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1291-1318, March.
    29. Meidell, Anita & Kaarbøe, Katarina, 2017. "How the enterprise risk management function influences decision-making in the organization – A field study of a large, global oil and gas company," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 39-55.
    30. Ingo Borchert & Batshur Gootiiz & Aaditya Mattoo, 2014. "Policy Barriers to International Trade in Services: Evidence from a New Database," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 162-188.
    31. Qiyuan Xu & Aizong Xiong, 2022. "The impact of financial sanctions on the international monetary system," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 253-262, September.
    32. Xinxin Zhao & Zongjun Wang & Min Deng, 2019. "Interest Rate Marketization, Financing Constraints and R&D Investments: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, April.
    33. Khandokar Istiak & Apostolos Serletis, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and real output: evidence from the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(39), pages 4222-4233, August.
    34. Oetzel, Jennifer M. & Bettis, Richard A. & Zenner, Marc, 2001. "Country risk measures: how risky are they?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 128-145, July.
    35. Daniel McDowell, 2021. "Financial sanctions and political risk in the international currency system," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 635-661, May.
    36. Robin Koepke, 2019. "What Drives Capital Flows To Emerging Markets? A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 516-540, April.
    37. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "The global sanctions data base," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    38. Hainmueller, Jens & Xu, Yiqing, 2013. "ebalance: A Stata Package for Entropy Balancing," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 54(i07).
    39. Dursun Peksen & Byunghwan Son, 2015. "Economic coercion and currency crises in target countries," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 52(4), pages 448-462, July.
    40. Brown, Christopher L. & Cavusgil, S. Tamer & Lord, A. Wayne, 2015. "Country-risk measurement and analysis: A new conceptualization and managerial tool," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 246-265.
    41. Barry, Colin M. & Kleinberg, Katja B., 2015. "Profiting from Sanctions: Economic Coercion and US Foreign Direct Investment in Third-Party States," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 881-912, October.
    42. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
    43. Wen, Fenghua & Li, Cui & Sha, Han & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    44. Lee, Yong Suk, 2018. "International isolation and regional inequality: Evidence from sanctions on North Korea," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 34-51.
    45. Mahdi Moradi & Andrea Appolloni & Grzegorz Zimon & Hossein Tarighi & Maede Kamali, 2021. "Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Price Crash Risk: Do Managers Withhold Bad News in the Crisis-Ridden Iran Market?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    46. Le Thanh Ha & Doan Ngoc Thang, 2023. "Economic sanctions and global banking flows: The moderating roles of financial market properties and institutional quality," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 365-390, April.
    47. Ozcelebi, Oguzhan, 2019. "Assessment of asymmetric effects on exchange market pressure: Empirical evidence from emerging countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 498-513.
    48. Besley, Timothy & Case, Anne, 2000. "Unnatural Experiments? Estimating the Incidence of Endogenous Policies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(467), pages 672-694, November.
    49. Karnizova, Lilia & Li, Jiaxiong (Chris), 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 261-265.
    50. Armelius, Hanna & Hull, Isaiah & Stenbacka Köhler, Hanna, 2017. "The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 31-34.
    51. Liu, Xue-Ying & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Ma, Kun & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2024. "The impact of financial sanctions on ESG performance of target countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    52. Min Chen & Zhaobo Zhu & Peiwen Han & Bo Chen & Jia Liu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and analyst behaviours: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Post-Print hal-03628930, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lei, Adrian C.H. & Song, Chen, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market activity: Evidence from China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Liu, Xue-Ying & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Ma, Kun & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2024. "The impact of financial sanctions on ESG performance of target countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2024. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Political Economy of International Sanctions," Research Papers in Economics 2024-07, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    5. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Economic sanctions and sovereign debt default," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Chang, Chong-Chuo & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Mon, Khin Thiri, 2024. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the firm's working capital requirements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Jia, Qiaoyu & Zhou, Jia'nan, 2024. "Does economic policy uncertainty influence executive compensation stickiness? Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 562-582.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & George Ike & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 1008-1026, March.
    9. Xiao, Lingmin & Zhao, Liang & Zhu, Qianyu, 2024. "Host country economic policy uncertainty, trade openness and Chinese enterprise overseas investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    10. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    11. Azevedo, Alcino & Colak, Gonul & El Kalak, Izidin & Tunaru, Radu, 2024. "The timing of voluntary delisting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    12. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2024. "Geopolitical risk perceptions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    14. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Yuan, Mengyi & Zhang, Lin & Lian, Yonghui, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk of commercial banks: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 587-605.
    16. Zhu, Yanli & Sun, Yingnan & Xiang, Xinyu, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise value: Evidence from Chinese listed enterprises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    17. Chen, Mo & Xue, Wei-Xian & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping & Liu, Xiaoxia, 2024. "The impact of economic sanctions on the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-174.
    18. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    19. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    20. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x2400310x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.