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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Risk Features

Author

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  • Guojin Chen

    (Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China; Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)

  • Runze Zhang

    (Postdoctoral Workstation, Guosen Securities, Shenzhen 518001, China)

  • Xiangqin Zhao

    (Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce economic policy uncertainty by using a stochastic discount model. Via parameter calibration and static analysis, we investigate the dynamic characteristics of stock risk on different policy uncertainty. On this basis, we test the channel through policy uncertainty affects stock risk by empirical simulation, and the effect of policy uncertainty on stock risk formation by portfolio analysis, in order to verify the applicability of the theoretical model in China. Finally, the panel model is used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between policy uncertainty and stock risk. The results show that policy uncertainty can inereuse stock risk through enterprise cash flow, discounting factors and correlation coefficient. The effect is still significant after controlling traditional risk factors, corporate heterogeneity, and external environmental factors. Companies that are non-state-owned, have lower returns on invested capital and lower asset growth rate manifest greater stock risk when policy uncertainty is higher. The magnitude of the effect of policy uncertainty on stock risk is larger when the economy is weaker and the policy environment is more unstable.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojin Chen & Runze Zhang & Xiangqin Zhao, 2019. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Risk Features," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 14(3), pages 461-495, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fec:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:3:p:461-495
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    File URL: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-008-019-0020-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhongbo Jing & Shiyu Lu & Yang Zhao & Jun Zhou, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, corporate investment decisions and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S1), pages 1477-1502, April.
    2. Zhang, Ziqi & Su, Zhi & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Yongji, 2022. "Corporate environmental information disclosure and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Chinese listed heavily polluting companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Tang, Liang & Wan, Xiangyu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price informativeness," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Zhang, Tongbin, 2021. "Stock prices and the risk-free rate: An internal rationality approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.
    6. Dang, Man & Henry, Darren & Thai, Hong An & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Mazur, Mieszko, 2022. "Does policy uncertainty predict the death of M&A deals?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    7. Cao Thi Mien Thuy & Trinh Quoc Trung & Nguyen Vinh Khuong & Nguyen Thanh Liem, 2021. "From Corporate Social Responsibility to Stock Price Crash Risk: Modelling the Mediating Role of Firm Performance in an Emerging Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-17, November.
    8. Xin Su & Shengshi Zhou & Rui Xue & Jinfang Tian, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty raise corporate precautionary cash holdings? Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(5), pages 4567-4592, December.
    9. Xin Cui & Shouyu Yao & Zhenming Fang & Hua Wang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and earnings management: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 3937-3976, September.
    10. Hasibul Chowdhury & Robert Faff & Khoa Hoang, 2021. "Using abnormal analyst coverage to unlock new evidence on stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1557-1588, April.
    11. Li, Tao & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Xuehua & Zhang, Yaojie, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: Novel evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-33.
    12. Zaman, Rashid & Atawnah, Nader & Haseeb, Muhammad & Nadeem, Muhammad & Irfan, Saadia, 2021. "Does corporate eco-innovation affect stock price crash risk?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    13. Li, Rong & Li, Sufang & Yuan, Di & Chen, Hong & Xiang, Shilei, 2023. "Spillover effect of economic policy uncertainty on the stock market in the post-epidemic era," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Yuan, Mengyi & Zhang, Lin & Lian, Yonghui, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk of commercial banks: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 587-605.
    15. Jian Liu & Ziting Zhang & Lizhao Yan & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH-MIDAS model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Liu, Zhifeng & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Mahdi Moradi & Andrea Appolloni & Grzegorz Zimon & Hossein Tarighi & Maede Kamali, 2021. "Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Price Crash Risk: Do Managers Withhold Bad News in the Crisis-Ridden Iran Market?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    19. Han, Xun & Hsu, Sara & Li, Jianjun & An, Ran, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, non-financial enterprises' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Hou, Deshuai & Chan, Kam C. & Dong, Manru & Yao, Qiuge, 2022. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on a firm’s green behavior: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy uncertainty (EPU); stock risk; transmission mechanism; panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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