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Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty

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  • Beckmann, Joscha
  • Czudaj, Robert

Abstract

This study provides a new angle on the relationship between political decisions and exchange rates. We link a conventional exchange rate modeling approach to the literature on the political economy of exchange rates and studies dealing with the role of policy announcements for financial market expectations by addressing the impact of policy uncertainty on exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals. Our results show that expectations are not only affected by announcements but also by the degree of uncertainty regarding the future stance of economic policy. We find that forecast errors are strongly affected by policy uncertainty compared to expectations, suggesting that the effect of uncertainty is not efficiently accounted for in market expectations. Our main findings hold for economic policy uncertainty, fiscal policy uncertainty and monetary policy uncertainty. In addition, the estimates for the Japanese yen suggest a safe haven role of the yen since higher policy uncertainty in the US results in an expected appreciation of the yen.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:47:y:2017:i:c:p:148-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.06.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 296-316.
    2. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:283-300 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2803. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation," CREATES Research Papers 2018-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities," Chemnitz Economic Papers 019, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
    5. Haskamp, Ulrich, 2017. "Forecasting exchange rates: The time-varying relationship between exchange rates and Taylor rule fundamentals," Ruhr Economic Papers 704, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy; Exchange rates; Expectations; Forecast; Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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