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Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection

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  • Sînâ T. AteÅŸ

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Felipe E. Saffie

    () (Department of Economics, University of Maryland)

Abstract

We combine the real business cycle small open economy framework with the endogenous growth literature to study the productivity cost of a sudden stop. In this economy, productivity growth is determined by successful implementation of business ideas, yet the quality of ideas is heterogeneous and good ideas are scarce. A representative financial intermediary screens and selects the most promising ideas, which gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirms the main mechanism of the model, as firms born during the credit shortage are fewer, but better. A calibrated version of the economy shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity and selection, as otherwise the permanent loss of output generated by the forgone entrants doubles, which increases the welfare cost by 30%.

Suggested Citation

  • Sînâ T. AteÅŸ & Felipe E. Saffie, 2014. "Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-043, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:14-043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Serrano-Velarde & Douglas Hanley & Ufuk Akcigit, 2012. "Back to Basics: Basic Research Spillovers, Innovation Policy and Growth," 2012 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. de Ridder, Maarten, 2016. "Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2018. "Reserve Accumulation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1168, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Marcin Bielecki, 2017. "Long shadows of financial shocks: an endogenous growth perspective," Working Papers 2017-22, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. Todd Messer & Michael Siemer & Francois Gourio, 2016. "A Missing Generation of Firms? Aggregate Effects of the Decline in New Business Formation," 2016 Meeting Papers 752, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Sara Moreira, 2017. "Firm Dynamics, Persistent Effects of Entry Conditions, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 17-29, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. C. Cahn & A. Duquerroy & W. Mullins, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Relationships," Working papers 659, Banque de France.
    9. Zehao Hu, 2014. "Financing Innovation with Unobserved Progress," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Felipe Saffie & Sina Ates, 2016. "Project Heterogeneity and Growth: The Impact of Financial Selection on Firm Entry," 2016 Meeting Papers 1486, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Tom Schmitz, 2016. "Endogenous Growth, Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-run Impact of Financial Crises," 2016 Meeting Papers 609, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Sergio Urzúa, 2018. "The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles," NBER Working Papers 24560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo A. & JINNAI, Ryo, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Trends, and the Great Recession," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-14, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Selection; Sudden Stop; Endogenous Growth; Firm Entry; Firm Heterogeneity;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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