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A first-passage-time model under regime-switching market environment

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  • Kim, Mi Ae
  • Jang, Bong-Gyu
  • Lee, Ho-Seok

Abstract

In this paper, we suggest a first-passage-time model which can explain default probability and default correlation dynamics under stochastic market environment. We add a Markov regime-switching market condition to the first-passage-time model of Zhou [Zhou, C., 2001. An analysis of default correlations and multiple defaults. Review of Financial Studies 14, 555-576]. Using this model, we try to explain various relationship between default probability, default correlation, and market condition. We also suggest a valuation method for credit default swap (CDS) with (or without) counterparty default risk (CDR) and basket default swap under this model. Our numerical results provide us with several meaningful implications. First, default swap spread is higher in economic recession than in economic expansion across default swap maturity. Second, as the difference of asset return volatility between under bear market and under bull market increases, CDS spread increases regardless of maturity. Third, the bigger the intensity shifting from bull market to bear market, the higher the spread for both CDS without CDR and basket default swap.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Mi Ae & Jang, Bong-Gyu & Lee, Ho-Seok, 2008. "A first-passage-time model under regime-switching market environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2617-2627, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:12:p:2617-2627
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Hieber, 2014. "A Correction Note on: When the “Bull” Meets the “Bear”—A First Passage Time Problem for a Hidden Markov Process," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 771-776, September.
    2. Wei Wang & Linyi Qian & Wensheng Wang, 2016. "Hedging of contingent claims written on non traded assets under Markov-modulated models," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 3577-3595, June.
    3. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    4. Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2014. "Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe: The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece," IMF Working Papers 2014/076, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
    6. Seung-Yeal Ha & Kyoung-Kuk Kim & Kiseop Lee, 2015. "A mathematical model for multi-name credit based on community flocking," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 841-851, May.
    7. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Rhee, Yuna & Yoon, Ji Hee, 2016. "Business cycle and credit risk modeling with jump risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 15-36.
    8. Zhang, Xiaoyuan & Zhang, Tianqi, 2022. "Barrier option pricing under a Markov Regime switching diffusion model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 273-280.
    9. González-Hermosillo, Brenda & Johnson, Christian, 2017. "Transmission of financial stress in Europe: The pivotal role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 49-64.
    10. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
    11. Lijun Bo & Yongjin Wang & Xuewei Yang, 2014. "On the Default Probability in a Regime-Switching Regulated Market," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 101-113, March.
    12. Peter Hieber, 2018. "Pricing exotic options in a regime switching economy: a Fourier transform method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 231-252, July.

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