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Econometric reduction theory and philosophy

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  • Sucarrat, Genaro

Abstract

Econometric reduction theory provides a comprehensive probabilistic framework for the analysis and classification of the reductions (simplifications) associated with empirical econometric models. However, the available approaches to econometric reduction theory are unable to satisfactory accommodate a commonplace theory of social reality, namely that the course of history is indeterministic, that history does not repeat itself and that the future depends on the past. Using concepts from philosophy this paper proposes a solution to these shortcomings, which in addition permits new reductions, interpretations and definitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Econometric reduction theory and philosophy," UC3M Working papers. Economics we091005, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we091005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    4. Florens, J.-P. & Mouchart, M., 1985. "Conditioning in dynamic models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 624, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    6. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124.
    7. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "LSE and the British Approach to Time Series Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 108-128, January.
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    9. Spanos,Aris, 1999. "Probability Theory and Statistical Inference," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424080.
    10. Hendry, David F., 2003. "J. Denis Sargan And The Origins Of Lse Econometric Methodology," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 457-480, June.
    11. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    2. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-33.
    3. Kvamsdal, Sturla F., 2012. "Technological Change in Renewable Resource Industries: An Alternative Estimation Approach," Discussion Papers 2012/14, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    4. Felix Pretis & James Reade & Genaro Sucarrat, 2016. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets," Economics Series Working Papers 794, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DGP;

    JEL classification:

    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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