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Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability

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  • Sucarrat, Genaro

Abstract

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and practical issues, which suggests an alternative framework is needed. The contribution of this study is twofold. First, the finite sample properties of operational and practical procedures for the forecast evaluation of explanatory discrete time models of financial return variability are studied. Second, with basis in the simulation results a simple framework is proposed and illustrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7263
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
    2. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return variability forecasting; financial volatility; explanatory modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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