Emerging versus developed volatility indices. The comparison of VIW20 and VIX indices
Modeling of financial markets volatility is one of the most significant issues of contemporary finance, especially with regard to analyzing high-frequency data. Accurate quantification and forecast of volatility are of immense importance in risk management (VaR models, stress testing and worst-case scenario), models of capital market and options valuation techniques. What we show in this paper is the methodology for calculating volatility index for Polish capital market (VIW20 – index anticipating expected volatility of WIG20 index). The methods presented are based on VIX index (VIX White Paper, 2003) and enriched with necessary modifications corresponding to the character of Polish options market. Quoted on CBOE, VIX index is currently known as the best measure of capital investment risk perfectly illustrating the level of fear and emotions of market participants. The conception of volatility index is based on the combination of realized volatility and implied volatility which, using methodology of Derman et al. (1999) and reconstructing volatility surface, reflects both volatility smile as well as its term structure. The research is carried out using high-frequency data (i.e. tick data) for index options on WIG20 index for the period November 2003 - May 2007, in other words, starting with the introduction of options by Warsaw Stock Exchange. All additional simulations are carried out using data gathered in years 1998-2008. Having analyzed VIW20 index in detail, we observed its characteristic behavior during the periods of strong market turmoils. What we also present is the analysis of the influence of VIW20 and VIX index-based instruments both on construction of minimum risk portfolio and on the quality of derivatives portfolio management in which volatility risk and liquidity risk play a key role. The main objective of this paper is to provide foundations for introducing appropriate volatility indices and volatility-based derivatives. This is done with paying attention to crucial methodology changes, necessary if one considers strong markets inefficiencies in emerging countries. As the introduction of appropriate instruments will enable active management of risks that are unhedgable nowadays it will significantly contribute to the development of the given markets in the course of time. In the summary we additionally point to the benefits Warsaw Stock Exchange might obtain from, being one of the few emerging markets possessing appropriately quantified investment risk as well as derivatives to manage it.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: ul. Dluga 44/50, 00-241 Warszawa|
Phone: (+48 22) 55 49 144
Fax: (+48 22) 831 28 46
Web page: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
- Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
- Giot Pierre & Laurent Sebastien, 2001.
"Modelling daily value-at-risk using realized volatility and arch type models,"
014, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004. "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June.
- Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2002. "Modelling Daily Value-at-Risk Using Realized Volatility and ARCH Type Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 52, Society for Computational Economics.
- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1708, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
- Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2007.
"Measuring volatility with the realized range,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 181-207, May.
- Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992.
"No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns,"
3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
- John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yang, Dennis & Zhang, Qiang, 2000. "Drift-Independent Volatility Estimation Based on High, Low, Open, and Close Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 477-91, July.
- Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2006. "On the informational efficiency of S&P500 implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 139-153, August.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2009-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcin Bąba)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.