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A Bayesian Analysis of Exogeneity in Models with Latent Variables


  • Anna Pajor

    () (Cracow University of Economics)


This paper presents some new results on exogeneity in models with latent variables. The concept of exogeneity is extended to the class of models with latent variables, in which a subset of parameters and latent variables is of interest. Exogeneity is discussed from the Bayesian point of view. We propose sufficient weak and strong exogeneity conditions in the vector error correction model (VECM) with stochastic volatility (SV) disturbances. Finally, an empirical illustration based on the VECM-SV model for the daily growth rates of two main official Polish exchange rates: USD/PLN and EUR/PLN, as well as EUR/USD from the international Forex market is presented. The exogeneity of the EUR/USD rate is examined. The strong exogeneity hypothesis of the EUR/USD rate is not rejected by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Pajor, 2011. "A Bayesian Analysis of Exogeneity in Models with Latent Variables," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(2), pages 49-73, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:49-73

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. de Luna, Xavier & Johansson, Per, 2006. "Exogeneity in structural equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 527-543, June.
    3. Christophe Rault, 2011. "Long-run strong-exogeneity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 1-8.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:22:n:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Krzysztof Osiewalski & Jacek Osiewalski, 2013. "A Long-Run Relationship between Daily Prices on Two Markets: The Bayesian VAR(2)–MSF-SBEKK Model," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 5(1), pages 65-83, March.
    3. Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Testing causality between two vectors in multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 876-894.
    4. Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1191, The University of Melbourne.
    5. repec:psc:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:243-273 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger-causal analysis of GARCH models: a Bayesian approach," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1194, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Tomasz Wozniak, 2012. "Granger-causal analysis of VARMA-GARCH models," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/19, European University Institute.

    More about this item


    exogeneity; Bayesian cuts; latent variables; non-causality; stochastic volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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