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Generalized asymmetric power ARCH modelling of exchange rate volatility

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  • Michael McKenzie
  • Heather Mitchell

Abstract

This paper considers the ability of the power ARCH model to capture the stylized features of volatility in 17 heavily traded bilateral exchange rates. This power ARCH model nests a number of models from the ARCH family. The relative merits of these nested ARCH models can be considered using the standard log likelihood ratio test. The results of this paper suggest that in the presence of symmetric responses to innovations in the market, the GARCH(1,1) model is preferred. Where asymmetry is present, than the inclusion of a leverage term is worthwhile as long as a power term is also included.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael McKenzie & Heather Mitchell, 2002. "Generalized asymmetric power ARCH modelling of exchange rate volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 555-564.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:8:p:555-564 DOI: 10.1080/09603100010012999
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    Cited by:

    1. Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "Time-Scale Decomposition of Price Transmission in International Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 57-90, August.
    2. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Gambet, Jean-Benoît & Bouverot, Julien, 2008. "Robust outlier detection for Asia-Pacific stock index returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 326-343, October.
    3. Ke Zhu, 2016. "Bootstrapping the portmanteau tests in weak auto-regressive moving average models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(2), pages 463-485, March.
    4. Daniel Stavarek, 2011. "European exchange rates volatility and its asymmetrical components during the financial crisis," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2011-17, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Perry Sadorsky & Michael D. McKenzie, 2008. "Power transformation models and volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 587-606.
    7. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    9. Amira Akl Ahmed & Doaa Akl Ahmed, 2016. "Modelling Conditional Volatility and Downside Risk for Istanbul Stock Exchange," Working Papers 1028, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2016.
    10. Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "Time-Scale Decomposition of Price Transmission in International Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 57-90, August.
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach," MPRA Paper 69105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    13. Bildirici, Melike & Ersin, Özgür, 2012. "Nonlinear volatility models in economics: smooth transition and neural network augmented GARCH, APGARCH, FIGARCH and FIAPGARCH models," MPRA Paper 40330, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2012.
    14. Fagiani, Riccardo & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2014. "The role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets: A case study of the Swedish/Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 608-618.
    15. Cecilia Maya & Karoll Gómez, 2008. "What Exactly is "Bad News" in Foreign Exchange Markets? Evidence from Latin American Markets," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 161-183.
    16. Han Hwa Goh & Kim Leng Tan & Chia Ying Khor & Sew Lai Ng, 2016. "Volatility and Market Risk of Rubber Price in Malaysia: Pre- and Post-Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 323-344, December.
    17. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2003. "Volatility And Var Forecasting For The Ibex-35 Stock-Return Index Using Figarch-Type Processes And Different Evaluation Criteria," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-33, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    18. Vipul Kumar Singh, 2013. "Effectiveness of volatility models in option pricing: evidence from recent financial upheavals," Journal of Advances in Management Research, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 352-375, October.
    19. Ane, Thierry, 2006. "An analysis of the flexibility of Asymmetric Power GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1293-1311, November.

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