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¿Responde el Banco de la República a los movimientos en la tasa de cambio real?

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  • Egberto Alexander Riveros Saavedra

    ()

Abstract

Para los bancos centrales con régimen de inflación-objetivo modificar la tasa de interés de política monetaria como respuesta a la apreciación de la tasa cambio puede poner en riesgo el cumplimiento de la meta de inflación. Este trabajo determina qué tan importante ha sido el comportamiento de la tasa de cambio real para el Banco de la República a la hora de establecer el nivel de la tasa de interés. El estudio revela que el emisor, en los primeros años de implementación del esquema de inflación-objetivo, habría considerado la tasa de cambio real al momento de decidir el nivel de tasa de interés; sin embargo, dicha variable ha perdido importancia. La metodología de estimación de la función de reacción del Banco de la República consiste en un modelo de elección discreta (probit dinámico) que considera los cambios discretos y poco frecuentes en la tasa de interés.

Suggested Citation

  • Egberto Alexander Riveros Saavedra, 2012. "¿Responde el Banco de la República a los movimientos en la tasa de cambio real?," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 30(69), pages 150-194, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:010875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 11-44.
    2. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fernando Borraz & Alejandro Fried & Diego Gianelli, 2011. "Análisis de las calificaciones de riesgos soberano. El caso uruguayo," Documentos de trabajo 2011003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-745, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo Nicolás Páez, 2015. "Prediciendo decisiones de agentes económicos: ¿Cómo determina el Banco de la República de Colombia la tasa de interés?," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 012567, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    2. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Leonardo Villar & Cesar Pabon, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-473, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Roberto Steiner & Adolfo Barajas & César Pabón & Leonardo Villar, 2014. "Singular Focus or Multiple Objectives? What the Data Tell Us about Inflation Targeting in Latin America," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 177-213, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banco Central; función de reacción de política monetaria; probit; inflación-objetivo.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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