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Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia

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  • Andr�s Gonz�lez G.
  • Franz Hamann

Abstract

This paper measures inflation persistence in Colombia for the period 1990-2010 and estimates the implied speed at which agents learn about the central bank�s inflation target. We estimate Erceg and Levin�s (2003) imperfect credibility model using Bayesian techniques and compare the posterior odds of this model against a conventional Neokeynesian model with ad-hoc price indexation. The odds are strongly in favor of the imperfect credibility model, suggesting that lack of credibility on the inflation target is an important source of inflation persistence. We use the model to compute the sacrifice ratio associated to 100 basis points inflation target shocks and find that it is (0.83%) in line with previous estimates for Colombia. We also find that the speed at which agents learn in the model has increased, albeit marginally, since the central bank implemented its inflation targeting strategy. Although during this period macroeconomic volatility has fallen, inflation persistence has remained roughly constant suggesting that so far, the impact of those credibility gains has been modest.

Suggested Citation

  • Andr�s Gonz�lez G. & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 8737, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:008737
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Eliana González & José Vicente Romero & José Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2010. "Assessing inflationary pressures in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 129-171, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ludek Niedermayer, 2008. "Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 213-219, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Kaninda, Aristote, 2021. "Coordination des Politiques Monétaires et Croissance Economique en RDC: Rôle de la Gouvernance [Coordination of Monetary Policies and Economic Growth in the DRC: Role of Governance]," MPRA Paper 105264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hernando Vargas & Andr�s Gonz�lez & Ignacio Lozano, 2015. "Macroeconomic Gains from Structural Fiscal Policy Adjustments: The Case of Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 39-81.
    5. Hernando Vargas, 2008. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Colombia: major changes and current features," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 183-211, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Urrutia, Miguel & Hofstetter, Marc & Hamann, Franz, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6394, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Lutte contre l’Inflation et Croissance Economique en Afrique: la Nécessité d’une Alternative [Fighting against Inflation and economic growth in Africa: A necessity of alternative]," MPRA Paper 49416, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Apr 2013.
    8. Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2016. "Inflation expectations and a model-based core inflation measure in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 123-151, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Stabilité des Prix et Croissance Economique en Zone CEMAC: Une Approche en Données de Panel [Price Stability Objectives and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Econometrics Empirical Investig," MPRA Paper 49412, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2013.
    10. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Andrés Gonzalez & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    12. Anderson Grajales-Olarte & Franz Hamann & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga & José Pulido, 2025. "Policy implications of losing credibility: Lessons from Colombia’s post-pandemic inflationary surge," Borradores de Economia 1304, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Sebasti√°n Cadavid S√°nchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 16970, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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