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Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia

  • Andrés Gonzalez


  • Franz Hamann


This paper measures inflation persistence in Colombia for the period1990-2010 and estimates the implied speed at which agents learn about the central bank´s inflation target. We estimate Erceg and Levin´s (2003) imperfect credibility model using Bayesian techniques and compare the posterior odds of this model against a conventional Neokeynesian model with ad-hoc price indexation. The odds are strongly in favor of the imperfect credibility model, suggesting that lack of credibility on the inflation target is an important source of inflation persistence. We use the model to compute the sacrifice ratio associated to 100 basis points inflation target shocks and find that it is (0.83%) in line with previous estimates for Colombia. We also find that the speed at which agents learn in the model has increased, albeit marginally, since the central bank implemented its inflation targeting strategy. Although during this period macroeconomic volatility has fallen, inflation persistence has remained roughly constant suggesting that, so far, the impact of those credibility gains on inflation persistence has been modest.

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Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): (May)

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Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008920
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  1. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Andrés González G. & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008737, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  9. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
  10. Raquel Bernal, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules In Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003251, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
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  13. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Juan Carlos Parra, 2009. "La formación de precios en las empresas colombianas: evidencia a partir de una encuesta directa," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005735, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  14. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, 07.
  15. José Daniel REYES PEÑA, 2003. "The cost of disinflation in Colombia: -A sacrifice Ratio Approach-," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003579, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  16. Jaime Sarmiento Espinel & Alejandro Ramírez Vigoya*, 2005. "Los costos de la desinflación en Colombia según el modelo Buiter-Miller," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
  17. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
  18. Corvoisier, Sandrine & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation: how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 0451, European Central Bank.
  19. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
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