IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/658.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Andrés González

    ()

  • Franz Hamann

    ()

Abstract

This paper measures inflation persistence in Colombia for the period 1990-2010 and estimates the implied speed at which agents learn about the central bank’s inflation target. We estimate Erceg and Levin’s (2003) imperfect credibility model using Bayesian techniques and compare the posterior odds of this model against a conventional Neokeynesian model with ad-hoc price indexation. The odds are strongly in favor of the imperfect credibility model, suggesting that lack of credibility on the inflation target is an important source of inflation persistence. We use the model to compute the sacrifice ratio associated to 100 basis points inflation target shocks and find that it is (0.83%) in line with previous estimates for Colombia. We also find that the speed at which agents learn in the model has increased, albeit marginally, since the central bank implemented its inflation targeting strategy. Although during this period macroeconomic volatility has fallen, inflation persistence has remained roughly constant suggesting that so far, the impact of those credibility gains has been modest.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés González & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 658, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:658
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra658.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
    2. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Corvoisier, Sandrine & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation: how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 451, European Central Bank.
    4. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, July.
    5. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    6. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 524-535.
    7. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2003. "Transmission Mechanism and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia's Desinflation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 109-133, December.
    8. Pau Rabanal & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "Comparing new Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, pages 23-40.
    9. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
    10. Andrés Gonzalez & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, May.
    11. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, November.
    12. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
    13. Franz Hamann & Juan Manuel Julio & Paulina Restrepo Echavarría & Álvaro José Riascos Villegas, 2005. "Costos de la desinflación en un sistema de metas de inflación en una economía pequeña y abierta: el caso de Colombia," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2005, December.
    14. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Juan Carlos Parra A., 2013. "La formación de precios en las empresas colombianas: evidencia a partir de una encuesta directa," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Dinámica inflacionaria, persistencia y formación de precios y salarios, edition 1, chapter 11, pages 273-348 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    15. Bernal Raquel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, March.
    16. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 327-345.
    17. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
    18. José Daniel REYES PEÑA, 2003. "The cost of disinflation in Colombia: -A sacrifice Ratio Approach-," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003579, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    19. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    20. Jaime Sarmiento Espinel & Alejandro Ramírez Vigoya*, 2005. "Los costos de la desinflación en Colombia según el modelo Buiter-Miller," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Stabilité des Prix et Croissance Economique en Zone CEMAC: Une Approche en Données de Panel
      [Price Stability Objectives and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Econometrics Empirical Investig
      ," MPRA Paper 49412, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2013.
    3. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Eliana González & José Vicente Romero & José Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2010. "Assessing inflationary pressures in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 129-171 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ludek Niedermayer, 2008. "Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 213-219 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Hernando Vargas, 2008. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Colombia: major changes and current features," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 183-211 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2016. "Inflation expectations and a model-based core inflation measure in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 123-151 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Andrés Gonzalez & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, May.
    8. Miguel Urrutia & Marc Hofstetter & Franz Hamann, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6394, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Ignacio Lozano, 2015. "Macroeconomic Gains from Structural Fiscal Policy Adjustments: The Case of Colombia," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 39-81, February.
    10. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Lutte contre l’Inflation et Croissance Economique en Afrique: la Nécessité d’une Alternative
      [Fighting against Inflation and economic growth in Africa: A necessity of alternative]
      ," MPRA Paper 49416, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Apr 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credibility; inflation; persistence; disinflation costs; Colombia. Classification JEL:C52.;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.