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Evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy: an estimated Markov-switching DSGE model for the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Philip

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Mumtaz, Haroon

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper carries out a systematic investigation into the possibility of structural shifts in the UK economy using a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We find strong evidence for shifts in the structural parameters of several equations of the DSGE model. In addition, our results indicate that the volatility of structural shocks has also changed over time. However, a version of the model that allows for a change in the coefficients of the Taylor rule and shock volatilities provides the best model fit. Estimates from the selected DSGE model suggest that the mid-1970s were associated with a regime characterised by a smaller reaction by the monetary authorities to inflation developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy: an estimated Markov-switching DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 397, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0397
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2010/evolving-macroeconomic-dynamics-in-a-small-open-economy.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England.
    2. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    2. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    3. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Bilgili, Faik, 2012. "Linear and nonlinear TAR panel unit root analyses for solid biomass energy supply of European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6775-6781.
    5. Garreth Rule, 2012. "Collateral management in central bank policy operations," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 31, April.
    6. Andrej Drygalla, 2015. "Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters," FIW Working Paper series 139, FIW.
    7. Bilgili, Faik & Tülüce, Nadide Sevil Halıcı & Doğan, İbrahim, 2012. "The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1161-1169.
    8. Garreth Rule, 2011. "Issuing central bank securities," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 30, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching; DSGE; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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