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Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models

  • Marian Vavra

    ()

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

This paper addresses the issue related to testing for non-linearity in economic models using new principal component based multivariate non-linearity tests. Monte Carlo results suggest that the new multivariate tests have good size and power properties even in small samples usually available in practice. The empirical results indicate that the use of linear economic models is unsuitable for policy recommendations.

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File URL: http://www.nbs.sk/_img/Documents/PUBLIK/WP_3-2013_Vavra.pdf
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Paper provided by Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia in its series Working and Discussion Papers with number WP 3/2013.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1024
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  2. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2012. "Solving Rational Expectations Models," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3ug0u3qte39, Sciences Po.
  3. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  4. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Andrew T. Foerster, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Switches And Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 211-230, 02.
  7. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
  8. Troy A. Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor principle," Research Working Paper RWP 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, 02.
  10. David E. Altig & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2004. "Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities, and the business cycle," Working Paper 0416, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  11. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  12. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  13. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  14. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Vávra, Marián, 2014. "On testing for nonlinearity in multivariate time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-4.
  15. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2008-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, 09.
  17. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2005. "A Note on the Selection of Time Series Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 115-134, 02.
  18. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Online Appendix to "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle"," Technical Appendices 09-191, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  19. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
  20. Deschamps, P.J., 1990. "Joint Tests For Regularity And Autocorrelation In Allocation Systems," Papers 9042, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
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  22. Andrew P. Blake & George Kapetanios, 2003. "A radial basis function artificial neural network test for neglected nonlinearity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 357-373, December.
  23. Peres-Neto, Pedro R. & Jackson, Donald A. & Somers, Keith M., 2005. "How many principal components? stopping rules for determining the number of non-trivial axes revisited," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 974-997, June.
  24. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
  25. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May.
  27. repec:cor:louvrp:-1234 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
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