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Sztywność płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE małej skali. Analiza empiryczna dla Polski

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  • Zbigniew Kuchta

Abstract

Celem pracy jest empiryczna weryfikacja założenia o istnieniu sztywności płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE, estymowanych dla gospodarki polskiej. Weryfikacja ta została dokonana dzięki bayesowskiemu porównaniu modelu lepkich cen z modelem lepkich cen i płac, a także z ich rozszerzeniami na przypadek indeksacji. Podstawę porównania stanowiły kwartalne dane z lat 1995–2011, na podstawie których oszacowano każdy z analizowanych modeli. Następnie, dla każdego z nich obliczono gęstość brzegową oraz odniesiono je do siebie uzyskując czynnik Bayesa. Uzyskane wyniki dowodzą, że model lepkich płac i cen charakteryzuje się najlepszym dopasowaniem do analizowanej próby. Założenie indeksacji nie wpływało istotnie na dopasowanie modelu do danych zarówno w przypadku modelu o doskonale elastycznych, jak i lepkich płacach nominalnych. Ponadto porównanie funkcji reakcji na impuls pokazało, że model o lepkich cenach i płacach nominalnych implikuje inne, niż model lepkich cen, funkcje reakcji na impuls. Jednocześnie otrzymane oszacowania parametrów były w znacznym stopniu determinowane przez założenie sztywności nominalnej płac.

Suggested Citation

  • Zbigniew Kuchta, 2014. "Sztywność płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE małej skali. Analiza empiryczna dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 31-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2014:i:6:p:31-56
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    Cited by:

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    2. Baranowski, Paweł & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," MPRA Paper 70573, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2016.
    3. Przemysław Włodarczyk, 2018. "Rynek pracy w modelu nowej syntezy neoklasycznej ze sztywnościami płac nominalnych," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 51-92.
    4. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Czy szacując efekty polityki makroekonomicznej należy uwzględniać perspektywę planowania gospodarstw domowych?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 39-61.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sztywności nominalne cen i płac; dynamiczne modele równowagi ogólnej; bayesowskie porównywanie modeli; indeksacja cen i płac;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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