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The anatomy of a credit crisis: the boom and bust in farm land prices in the United States in the 1920s

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  • Raghuram G. Rajan
  • Rodney Ramcharan

Abstract

Does credit availability exacerbate asset price inflation? What channels could it work through? What are the long run consequences? In this paper we address these questions by examining the farm land price boom (and bust) in the United States that preceded the Great Depression. We find that credit availability likely had a direct effect on inflating land prices. Credit availability may have also amplified the relationship between the perceived improvement in fundamentals and land prices. When the perceived fundamentals soured, however, areas with higher ex ante credit availability suffered a greater fall in land prices, and experienced higher bank failure rates. Land prices stayed low for a number of decades after the bust in areas that had higher credit availability, suggesting that the effects of booms and busts induced by credit availability might be persistent. We draw lessons for regulatory policy.

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  • Raghuram G. Rajan & Rodney Ramcharan, 2012. "The anatomy of a credit crisis: the boom and bust in farm land prices in the United States in the 1920s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-62
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    9. Matthew Jaremski & David C. Wheelock, 2020. "Banking on the Boom, Tripped by the Bust: Banks and the World War I Agricultural Price Shock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1719-1754, October.
    10. Jeremy G. Weber & Nigel Key, 2014. "Do Wealth Gains from Land Appreciation Cause Farmers to Expand Acreage or Buy Land?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1334-1348.
    11. Acharya, Viral & Naqvi, Hassan, 2012. "The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 349-366.
    12. Rajan, Raghuram & Ramcharan, Rodney, 2016. "Local financial capacity and asset values: Evidence from bank failures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 229-251.
    13. Brownlees, Christian & Chabot, Ben & Ghysels, Eric & Kurz, Christopher, 2020. "Back to the future: Backtesting systemic risk measures during historical bank runs and the great depression," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Jason Henderson & Nathan Kauffman, 2013. "Farm investment and leverage cycles: will this time be different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 89-114.
    15. Claudio Borio & Magdalena Erdem & Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2015. "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    16. Azmat, Saad & Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Ghaffar, Hamza & Hayat, Aziz & Chazi, Abdelaziz, 2020. "Conventional vs Islamic banking and macroeconomic risk: Impact on asset price bubbles," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2020. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Lessons for COVID-19," Working Papers 2020-15, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    18. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2013. "A Tale of Two Countries and Two Booms, Canada and the United States in the 1920s and the 2000s: The Roles of Monetary and Financial Stability Policies," Working Paper series 44_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    19. Wan, Junmin, 2018. "Non-performing loans and housing prices in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-42.
    20. Carola Moreno & Carlos Saavedra & Bárbara Ulloa, 2014. "Commodity Price Cycles and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 738, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. KURASHIMA Daichi & MIZUNAGA Masashi & ODAKI Kazuhiko & WATANABE Wako, 2013. "Is Leverage a Determinant of Asset Price? Evidence from real estate transaction data," Discussion papers 13082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    22. Nemoto, Hiroyuki, 2017. "Credit availability and asset price: Empirical analysis of the Japanese bubbles in 1980s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 90-98.
    23. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin H. Saavedra, 2020. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Lessons for COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N52 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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