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Domestic Debt Structures in Emerging Markets : New Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Mehl

    (European Central Bank - ECB)

  • Julien Reynaud

    (European Central Bank - ECB, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This paper explains why public domestic debt composition in emerging economies can be risky, namely in foreign currency, with a short maturity or indexed. It analyses empirically the determinants of these risk sources separately, developing a new large dataset compiled from national sources for 33 emerging economies over 1994-2006. The paper finds that economic size, the breadth of the domestic investor base, inflation and fiscal soundness are all associated with risky public domestic debt compositions, yet to an extent that varies considerably in terms of magnitude and significance across sources of risk. Only inflation impacts all types of risky debt, underscoring the overarching importance of monetary credibility to make domestic debt compositions in emerging economies safer. Given local bond markets' rapid development, monitoring risky public domestic debt compositions in emerging economies becomes increasingly relevant to global financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Mehl & Julien Reynaud, 2008. "Domestic Debt Structures in Emerging Markets : New Empirical Evidence," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00332049, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00332049
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00332049v1
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/021, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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