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Domestic debt structures in emerging markets : new empirical evidence

This paper explains why public domestic debt composition in emerging economies can be risky, namely in foreign currency, with a short maturity or indexed. It analyses empirically the determinants of these risk sources separately, developing a new large dataset compiled from national sources for 33 emerging economies over 1994-2006. The paper finds that economic size, the breadth of the domestic investor base, inflation and fiscal soundness are all associated with risky public domestic debt compositions, yet to an extent that varies considerably in terms of magnitude and significance across sources of risk. Only inflation impacts all types of risky debt, underscoring the overarching importance of monetary credibility to make domestic debt compositions in emerging economies safer. Given local bond markets' rapid development, monitoring risky public domestic debt compositions in emerging economies becomes increasingly relevant to global financial stability.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2008/Bla08059.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number bla08059.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:bla08059
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  1. Flandreau, Marc & Sussman, Nathan, 2004. "Old Sins: Exchange Rate Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 4248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Financial Openness and Growth: Short-run Gain, Long-run Pain?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 69-95, 02.
  3. Alessandro Missale & Elisabetta Falcetti, . "Public Debt Indexation and Denomination with and Indipendent Central Bank," Working Papers 169, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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  7. Guido Wolswijk & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
  8. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2007. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," NBER Working Papers 13076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 03001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  10. Ugo Panizza, 2008. "Domestic And External Public Debt In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 188, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Alessandro Missale & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," NBER Working Papers 3944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
  15. Drudi, Francesco & Giordano, Raffaela, 2000. "Default risk and optimal debt management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 861-891, June.
  16. Missale, Alessandro, 1999. "Public Debt Management," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290858, March.
  17. Jean Tirole, 2003. "Inefficient Foreign Borrowing: A Dual- and Common-Agency Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1678-1702, December.
  18. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher Meissner & Angela Redish, 2003. "How "Original Sin" was Overcome: The Evolution of External Debt Denominated in Domestic Currencies in the United States and the British Dominions," NBER Working Papers 9841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Hauner, David, 2009. "Public debt and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 171-183, January.
  20. Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier Jeanne & Paolo Mauro & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Marcos Chamon, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention," IMF Occasional Papers 237, International Monetary Fund.
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