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Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis Essers
  • Hans J. Blommestein
  • Danny Cassimon
  • Perla Ibarlucea Flores

Abstract

This article studies the current state and drivers of government local currency bond market (LCBM) development in Sub-Saharan Africa. We first show that, increasingly, African governments issue fixed-rate local currency bonds with tenors of ten years and more on a regular basis. However, African LCBMs are also often marked by illiquidity, very few corporate securities, and narrow, bank-dominated investor bases. Second, we present an econometric analysis of the drivers of African government LCBMs based on a new high-quality, OECD-compiled panel dataset. LCBM capitalization is found to be correlated negatively with governments’ fiscal balance and inflation, and positively with common law legal origins, institutional quality and democracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:1167-1194
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1073987
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    Cited by:

    1. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    2. Florence Dafe & Dennis Essers & Ulrich Volz, 2018. "Localising sovereign debt: The rise of local currency bond markets in sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3317-3344, December.
    3. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Nonresident holdings of domestic debt in Nigeria: Internal or external driven?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 472-485, September.
    4. Wycliffe Oluoch & Kalu Ojah, 2024. "Financial Market Development and the Microstructure of Corporate Bond Markets in Africa: A Survey," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    5. SENGA, Christian, 2018. "Portfolio optimization at the frontier: Assessing the diversification benefits of African securities," Working Papers 2019001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    6. Pedersoli, Silvia & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2023. "Public debt management and private financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    7. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers, 2018. "Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62.
    8. Roel Dom & Lionel Roger, 2018. "Economic sanctions and domestic debt: Burundi's fiscal response to the suspension of budget support," Discussion Papers 2018-12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    9. Olfa Berrich & Halim Dabbou & Mohamed Imen Gallali, 2022. "Over-the-counter market and corporate bond market development," International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 47(2/3), pages 284-304.
    10. Xiao, Hao & Lin, Jie & Tang, Xiaoyang, 2024. "Spillover effects of external economic shocks on African sovereign bonds," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Yongkil Ahn & Yoshikatsu Shinozawa & Kazuo Yamada, 2022. "Corporate Debt Mix and Long-term Firm Growth in Japan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 2139-2152, June.
    12. Meng-wai Lee & Kim-leng Goh, 2019. "Bond Market Development in Malaysia: Possible Crowding-Out from Persistent Fiscal Deficits?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1798-1807.
    13. Law, Siong Hook & Kutan, Ali M. & Naseem, N.A.M., 2018. "The role of institutions in finance curse: Evidence from international data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 174-191.
    14. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2016. "Bond Markets Initiation and Tax Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 550-572, October.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    16. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2016. "The changing face of Rwanda's public debt," BeFinD Working Papers 0114, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    17. Rusike, Tatonga Gardner & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2021. "The impact of sovereign credit ratings on Eurobond yields: Evidence from Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon, 2019. "African Eurobonds: why we should (not) worry!," BeFinD Policy Briefs 8, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    19. repec:nam:befdwp:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jamel Boukhatem, 2021. "What drives local currency bond market development in Saudi Arabia: do macroeconomic and institutional factors matter?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    21. Kathrin Berensmann & Florence Dafe & Ulrich Volz, 2015. "Developing local currency bond markets for long-term development financing in Sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(3-4), pages 350-378.
    22. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Bond return predictability: Evidence from 25 OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    23. Florence Dafe & Annina Kaltenbrunner & Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven & Iván Weigandi, 2023. "Local Currency Bond Markets in Africa: Resilience and Subordination," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(5), pages 1031-1064, September.
    24. Fløgstad, Cathrin, 2017. "Domestic bond markets in emerging economies: Crowding in or crowding out?," Working Papers in Economics 15/17, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    25. Kodongo, Odongo & Mukoki, Paul & Ojah, Kalu, 2023. "Bond market development and infrastructure-gap reduction: The case of Sub-saharan Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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