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Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers

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  • Dennis Essers
  • Hans J. Blommestein
  • Danny Cassimon
  • Perla Ibarlucea Flores

Abstract

This article studies the current state and drivers of government local currency bond market (LCBM) development in Sub-Saharan Africa. We first show that, increasingly, African governments issue fixed-rate local currency bonds with tenors of ten years and more on a regular basis. However, African LCBMs are also often marked by illiquidity, very few corporate securities, and narrow, bank-dominated investor bases. Second, we present an econometric analysis of the drivers of African government LCBMs based on a new high-quality, OECD-compiled panel dataset. LCBM capitalization is found to be correlated negatively with governments’ fiscal balance and inflation, and positively with common law legal origins, institutional quality and democracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:1167-1194
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1073987
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    4. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    5. Florence Dafe & Dennis Essers & Ulrich Volz, 2018. "Localising sovereign debt: The rise of local currency bond markets in sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3317-3344, December.
    6. repec:wly:soecon:v:83:2:y:2016:p:550-572 is not listed on IDEAS
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    8. SENGA, Christian, 2018. "Portfolio optimization at the frontier: Assessing the diversification benefits of African securities," Working Papers 2019001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    9. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Nonresident holdings of domestic debt in Nigeria: Internal or external driven?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 472-485, September.
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    11. Meng-wai Lee & Kim-leng Goh, 2019. "Bond Market Development in Malaysia: Possible Crowding-Out from Persistent Fiscal Deficits?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1798-1807.
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    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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