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Public debt and Financial development: A theoretical exploration

Author

Listed:
  • M Ismihan
  • G Ozkan

Abstract

This paper proposes an analytical framework to examine the role of public debt in financial development, which remains largely unexplored in the existing literature. We find that in countries where the banking sector extends substantial credit to government, public debt is likely to harm financial development, with unfavourable implications for economic activity. As such, our results provide an alternative explanation for the ‘contractionary fiscal expansions’. We also show that the lower the financial depth, the greater the adverse effects of public borrowing on financial development and macroeconomic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • M Ismihan & G Ozkan, 2010. "Public debt and Financial development: A theoretical exploration," Discussion Papers 10/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:10/14
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa İsmihan & Burcu Dinçergök & Seyit Mümin Cilasun, 2013. "Finance, Instability, Debt and Growth: The Turkish Case, 1980-2010," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 271, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    2. Michał Brzozowski & Joanna Siwińska-Gorzelak, 2016. "The Interplay Between Public and Private External Debt Stocks," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 311-332, December.
    3. Duy‐Tung Bui, 2018. "How Financial Freedom and Integration Change Public Debt Impact on Financial Development in the Asia‐Pacific: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 486-501, December.
    4. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "An empirical characterization of the effects of public debt on economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(35), pages 3495-3508, July.
    5. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Samwel Aloket Kipyego & Charity Njoka & Joseph Muniu, 2022. "Relationship Between Public Debt And Financial Development In Kenya," International Journal of Finance and Accounting, IPRJB, vol. 7(4), pages 55-83.
    7. Ehigiamusoe, Kizito Uyi & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2020. "The role of deficit and debt in financing growth in West Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 216-234.
    8. Farzan Yahya & Muhammad Waqas & Muhammad Hussain & Abdul Haseeb Tahir, 2024. "The heterogeneous effect of technology and macroeconomic policies on financial market development," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 1131-1146, April.
    9. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis, 2019. "Efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre los títulos públicos: evidencia empírica para Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 38(77), pages 337-364.
    10. Abiodun Hafeez Akindipe, . "Public Debt Financial Development in Nigeria," Journal of Economic and Sustainable Growth 2, Office Of The Chief Economist, Development Bank of Nigeria.
    11. Mashael Fahad Alkhurayji & Hamed Mohammed Alhoshan, 2025. "Public Debt, Oil Rent, and Financial Development in MENA Countries: A Fractional Response Model Approach (FRM)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, October.
    12. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2017. "Time-varying Effects of Public Debt on the Financial and Banking Development in the Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 77325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chortareas, Georgios & Mavrodimitrakis, Christos, 2021. "Policy conflict, coordination, and leadership in a monetary union under imperfect instrument substitutability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 342-361.
    14. Sana Zouari & Dhafer Saidane & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2022. "Private sector financing: linear and quadratic effects of domestic public debt on bank credit supply," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 372-387.
    15. Chen, Wen, 2024. "How does local government debt affect bank loan pricing? Evidence from loan-level data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    16. Qamar ABBAS & Muhammad RAMZAN & Sumbal FATIMA, 2022. "Financial development and public debt. Estimating the role of institutional quality," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(632), A), pages 5-26, Autumn.
    17. Mehmet Zeki Ak & Mustafa Kirca & Mehmet Nurullah Altintaº, 2016. "The impacts of financial development on growth:A time-varying causality analysis for Turkey," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 529-554.
    18. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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