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Domestic public debt in low-income countries: trends and structure

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Listed:
  • Giovanna Bua

    (The World Bank, Universit… Statale di Milano)

  • Juan Pradelli

    (The World Bank)

  • Andrea Filippo Presbitero

    (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, MoFiR)

Abstract

This paper introduces a new dataset on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 Low-Income Countries over the period 1971-2011. We characterize the recent trends regarding LICs domestic public debt and explore the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. We also observe that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term instruments over time and that the maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the Central Bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanna Bua & Juan Pradelli & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Domestic public debt in low-income countries: trends and structure," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 85, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:anc:wmofir:85
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    3. Agnieszka Kozera & Aldona Standar & Łukasz Satoła, 2020. "Managing Rural Areas in the Context of the Growing Debt of Polish Local Government Units," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, August.
    4. Elkhan Sadik-Zada, Andrea Gatto & Andrea Gatto, 2019. "Determinants of the Public Debt and the Role of the Natural Resources: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers 2019.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    6. Mubariz Mammadli & Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada & Andrea Gatto & Rana Huseynova, 2021. "What Drives Public Debt Growth? A Focus on Natural Resources, Sustainability and Development," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 614-621.
    7. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    8. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    9. Kathrin Berensmann & Florence Dafe & Ulrich Volz, 2015. "Developing local currency bond markets for long-term development financing in Sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(3-4), pages 350-378.
    10. Roel Dom & Lionel Roger, 2018. "Economic sanctions and domestic debt: Burundi's fiscal response to the suspension of budget support," Discussion Papers 2018-12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    11. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    12. Toriola, Anu Keshiro & Salami, Lateef Abiodun & Oke-Bello, Adesina Mukaila & Joseph, Gloria Oluwapelumi, 2024. "Effect of Rising Public Debt on Growth of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Sectors in Nigeria," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 12(1), January.
    13. Florence Dafe & Dennis Essers & Ulrich Volz, 2018. "Localising sovereign debt: The rise of local currency bond markets in sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3317-3344, December.
    14. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Bayar, Yilmaz & Sakar, Emre, 2021. "Impact of Domestic Public Borrowing on Financial Development: Evidence from EU Transition Economies," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 28(1).
    16. Olugbenga Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2019. "Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 157-179, May.
    17. Leno S. Rocha & Frederico S. A. Rocha & Th'arsis T. P. Souza, 2016. "Is the public sector of your country a diffusion borrower? Empirical evidence from Brazil," Papers 1604.07782, arXiv.org.
    18. Leno S Rocha & Frederico S A Rocha & Thársis T P Souza, 2017. "Is the public sector of your country a diffusion borrower? Empirical evidence from Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, October.
    19. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    20. Biagio Bossone, 2022. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for the Public Finances of Globalized Economies: Theory, Policy Implications, and Keynesian Reflections," Working Papers PKWP2202, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    21. Walid Benayed & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2020. "Domestic public debt and financial development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is there an inverted-U relationship?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 846-854.
    22. S.M. Ali Abbas & Raphael Espinoza, 2016. "Why Do Banks in Developing Countries Hold Government Securities?," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 2016-1, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    23. Gonzalez-Aguado, Eugenia, 2022. "Interest Rate Shocks and the Composition of Sovereign Debt," TSE Working Papers 22-1379, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt structure; Domestic debt; HIPCs; Low-income countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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