Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries

The potential consequences of the development of domestic debt markets in Low-Income Countries (LICs) are extremely relevant for policy-makers and international financial institutions, especially in light of a scaling-up of public investment in infrastructures. This paper introduces a new dataset on the stock of domestic debt in LICs over the period 1970-2010. With respect to the existing dataset, this one expands the country and time coverage, devotes a careful attention to the problem of the zeros and addresses some inconsistencies between the existing datasets. The descriptive analysis of the evolution of domestic debt in LICs, especially over the last two decades, points out some interesting patterns. The reliance on internal financing has partially offset the reduction in external debt granted by bilateral and multilateral debt relief initiatives. Domestic debt increased at a lower and less volatile pace in countries with better policies and institutions. This pattern is mirrored by a greater capital accumulation, a faster financial development, and a stronger output growth. This descriptive evidence supports the hypothesis that the development of the domestic debt market can bring benefits only in presence of a stable macroeconomic environment, lack of political uncertainty and a developed financial system.