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The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience

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  • Aiyar, Shekhar
  • Berg, Andrew
  • Hussain, Mumtaz

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic challenges created by a surge in aid inflows. It develops an analytical framework for examining possible policy responses to increased aid, in terms of absorption and spending of aid?where the central bank controls absorption through monetary policy and the sale of foreign exchange and the fiscal authority controls spending. Different combinations of absorption and spending lead to different macroeconomic consequences. Evidence from five countries that recently experienced an aid surge (Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, Mozambique and Uganda) shows no support for aid-related real exchange rate appreciation in these countries, but indicates that the fear of Dutch disease played an important part in the policy reaction to aid surges. Fiscal and monetary authorities should coordinate their responses to an aid surge, because an uncoordinated response?typically when fiscal authority wants to spend aid while the central bank wants to avoid exchange rate appreciation?can have serious negative macroeconomic consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiyar, Shekhar & Berg, Andrew & Hussain, Mumtaz, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," WIDER Working Paper Series 079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-79
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie & Catherine Pattillo, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 464-490, August.
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    5. Alessandro Prati & Thierry Tressel, 2006. "What is the Most Effective Monetary Policy for Aid-Receiving Countries?," Working Papers 12, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    6. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    7. Andrew Berg & Mumtaz Hussain & Shaun K. Roache & Amber A Mahone & Tokhir N Mirzoev & Shekhar Aiyar, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid; Lessons from Recent Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 253, International Monetary Fund.
    8. McGillivray, Mark & Morrissey, Oliver, 2001. "Fiscal Effects of Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series 061, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

    1. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-1043.
    2. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Aid and Vulnerability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 88, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    3. Temple, Jonathan & Van de Sijpe, Nicolas, 2017. "Foreign aid and domestic absorption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 431-443.
    4. Pedro M G Martins, "undated". "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Discussion Papers 10/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    5. Fischer, A.M., 2017. "Dilemmas of externally financing domestic expenditures: Rethinking the political economy of aid and social protection through the monetary transformation dilemma," ISS Working Papers - General Series 629, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    6. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
    7. Alexandra Jarotschkin & Aart Kraay, 2016. "Aid, Disbursement Delays, and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(2), pages 217-238, June.
    8. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    9. Fischer, A.M., 2016. "Aid and the symbiosis of global redistribution and development: Comparative historical lessons from two icons of development studies," ISS Working Papers - General Series 618, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    10. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    11. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2015. "The Absorption and Spending Capacity of Aid in the Economic Community of West African States," MPRA Paper 66736, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Aug 2015.
    13. Pedro M G Martins, "undated". "Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: A Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    14. repec:nam:befdwp:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Eric Gabin Kilama, 2014. "Recipients aid absorption in the new development cooperation landscape," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1929-1944.
    16. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick PLANE & Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Capital Flows and their Impact on the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Working Papers 201032, CERDI.
    17. Kilama, Eric Gabin, 2016. "The influence of China and emerging donors aid allocation: A recipient perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 76-91.
    18. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2015. "On The Trade-Off Between Welfare and Peace: Evidence from West African Countries Using a Quantile Regression," MPRA Paper 79776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    19. Chance Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Capital Inflows in Form of Foreign Aid in Malawi," Working Papers 201232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: The Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data," Working Paper Series 0910, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    21. Bwire, Thomas & Lloyd, Tim & Morrissey, Oliver, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Public Sector and Private Consumption: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 094, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Bwire, Thomas & Lloyd, Tim & Morrissey, Oliver, 2013. "A Timeseries Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Aid on Central Government's Fiscal Budget in Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    Keywords

    aid; exchange rate; aid absorption; policy;

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