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The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience

  • Aiyar, Shekhar
  • Berg, Andrew
  • Hussain, Mumtaz

This paper investigates the macroeconomic challenges created by a surge in aid inflows. It develops an analytical framework for examining possible policy responses to increased aid, in terms of absorption and spending of aid?where the central bank controls absorption through monetary policy and the sale of foreign exchange and the fiscal authority controls spending. Different combinations of absorption and spending lead to different macroeconomic consequences. Evidence from five countries that recently experienced an aid surge (Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, Mozambique and Uganda) shows no support for aid-related real exchange rate appreciation in these countries, but indicates that the fear of Dutch disease played an important part in the policy reaction to aid surges. Fiscal and monetary authorities should coordinate their responses to an aid surge, because an uncoordinated response?typically when fiscal authority wants to spend aid while the central bank wants to avoid exchange rate appreciation?can have serious negative macroeconomic consequences.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/rp2008/rp2008-79.pdf
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Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number RP2008/79.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-79
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  1. Timothy D. Lane & Leslie Lipschitz & Cristina Arellano & Ales Bulir, 2005. "The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and its Variability," IMF Working Papers 05/119, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Catherine A. Pattillo & Stephen A. O'Connell & Christopher Adam & Edward F. Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/216, International Monetary Fund.
  3. A. Javier Hamann & Ales Bulir, 2006. "Volatility of Development Aid; From the Frying Pan Into the Fire?," IMF Working Papers 06/65, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 2511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Alexander Pivovarsky & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Erwin Tiongson, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Revenue Response; Does the Composition of Aid Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/176, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie & Catherine Pattillo, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 464-490, 08.
  7. McGillivray, Mark & Morrissey, Oliver, 2001. "Fiscal Effects of Aid," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  8. Martin Brownbridge & Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, 2007. "Aid and Fiscal Deficits: Lessons from Uganda on the Implications for Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Sustainability," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 193-213, 03.
  9. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
  10. Andrew Berg & Mumtaz Hussain & Shaun K. Roache & Amber Mahone & Tokhir N. Mirzoev & Shekhar Aiyar, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid; Lessons from Recent Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 253, International Monetary Fund.
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