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Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges

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  • Buffie, Edward F.
  • O'Connell, Stephen A.
  • Adam, Christopher

Abstract

Donors cannot pre-commit to support scaled-up public spending programs on a continuing basis, nor can governments credibly commit to curtail expenditure rapidly in the event that aid revenues contract. An aid boom may therefore be accompanied by a credibility problem. When this is the case, the absorb-and-spend strategy recommended by the IMF leads to capital flight, higher inflation, and large current account surpluses inclusive of aid. The right policy package combines a critical minimum degree of fiscal restraint with reverse sterilization.

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  • Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:93:y:2010:i:2:p:287-298
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fischer, A.M., 2017. "Dilemmas of externally financing domestic expenditures: Rethinking the political economy of aid and social protection through the monetary transformation dilemma," ISS Working Papers - General Series 629, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    3. Oliver Morrissey & Lionel Roger & Lars Spreng, 2019. "Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease?," Discussion Papers 2019-07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Portillo, Rafael & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 116-129.
    5. Eric Gabin Kilama, 2014. "Recipients aid absorption in the new development cooperation landscape," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1929-1944.
    6. Buffie, Edward & Adam, Christopher & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1378-1395, November.
    7. Kilama, Eric Gabin, 2016. "The influence of China and emerging donors aid allocation: A recipient perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 76-91.
    8. Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 1004-1017.
    9. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    10. Kurt Annen & Michael Batu & Stephen Kosempel, 2014. "A DSGE-RBC Approach to Measuring Impacts of Wealth Transfers," Working Papers 1404, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    11. Oscar Becerra & Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2010. "In the Aftermath of Large Natural Disasters, what happens to foreign aid?," Working Papers 201018, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    12. Chatterjee Santanu & Giuliano Paola & Kaya Ilker, 2012. "Where Has All the Money Gone? Foreign Aid and the Composition of Government Spending," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, August.
    13. Annen, Kurt & Batu, Michael & Kosempel, Stephen, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of foreign aid and remittances: Implications for aid effectiveness studies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1136-1146.

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