Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease
Contemporary policy debates on the macroeconomics of aid often concentrate on short-run Dutch disease effects, ignoring the possible supply side impact of aid- financed public expenditure. We develop a simple model of aid and public expenditure in which public infrastructure capital generates an inter-temporal productivity spillover for both tradable and non-tradable sectors, where these productivity effects may display sector-specific biases. The model also allows for non-homothetic demands. We then use an extended version of this model, calibrated to contemporary conditions in Uganda, to simulate the effect of a step increase in net aid flows. Our simulations show that beyond the short-run, where Dutch disease effects are present, the relationship between enhanced aid flows, real exchange rates and welfare is less straightforward than simple models of aid suggest. We show that public infrastructure which generates a productivity bias in favour of non-tradable production delivers the largest aggregate return to aid, with the real exchange rate appreciation reduced or reversed and enhanced export performance, but it does so at the cost of a deterioration in the income distribution. Income gains accrue predominantly to urban skilled and unskilled households, leaving the rural poor relatively worse off. Under plausible parameterizations of the model the rural poor may also be worse off in absolute terms.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: +44-(0)1865 281447
Web page: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990.
"Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth,"
934, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
- Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
- Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995.
"Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,"
517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D & Robinson, Sherman, 1993. "External Shocks, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2003-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Payne)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.