IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/csa/wpaper/2006-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Riding the Wave: Monetary Responses to Aid Surges in Low-Income Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Edward Buffie
  • Christopher Adam
  • Stephen O'Connell
  • Catherine Patillo

Abstract

We focus on the management of highly persistent shocks to aid flows, including HIPC or MDG-related increases in net flows, in the presence of currency substitution by the domestic private sector. Such shocks have beneficent long-run effects, but when currency substitution is high they can produce dramatic macroeconomic management problems in the short run. What is the appropriate mix of money and exchange rate targeting in such cases, and the role of temporary sterilization? We analyze these and related issues in an intertemporal optimizing model that allows a portion of aid to be devoted to reducing the government’s seigniorage requirement. Our results argue that a managed float, with little or no sterilization of increases in the monetary base, is the most attractive approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Buffie & Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Catherine Patillo, 2006. "Riding the Wave: Monetary Responses to Aid Surges in Low-Income Countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2006-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:fef6ea72-2d43-4740-9180-4a92d8165a21
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    3. Asea, Patrick K & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1996. "Le Prix de l'Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 231-271, October.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    5. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/216, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Henstridge, N M, 1999. "De-monetisation, Inflation and Coffee: The Demand for Money in Uganda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(3), pages 345-385, October.
    7. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
    8. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    10. repec:bep:maccon:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1133-1133 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Mr. A. J Hamann & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2001. "How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications?," IMF Working Papers 2001/167, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    13. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2001. "Fiscal Policy Design in Low-Income Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-67, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, October.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Sterilization of money inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 24(2 Year 19), pages 263-285, December.
    17. David Fielding, 1994. "Money Demand in Four African Countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 3-37, May.
    18. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda," IMF Working Papers 2001/118, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    20. Craig Burnside & Domenico Fanizza, 2001. "Hiccups for HIPCs?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/077, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Buffie, Edward F., 1995. "Public investment, private investment, and inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1223-1247.
    23. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2003. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    24. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
    25. Mr. Patrick Honohan & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell, 1997. "Contrasting Monetary Regimes in Africa," IMF Working Papers 1997/064, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Christopher S Adam, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2007/180, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Mr. Markus Rodlauer, 2000. "Philippines: Toward Sustainable and Rapid Growth," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/006, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Fedderke, J. W. & Liu, W., 2002. "Modelling the determinants of capital flows and capital flight: with an application to South African data from 1960 to 1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-444, May.
    29. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Blundell, Richard, 1988. "Consumer Behaviour: Theory and Empirical Evidence--a Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 16-65, March.
    31. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
    32. C. L. Ramirez-Rojas, 1985. "Currency Substitution in Argentina, Mexico, and Uruguay (Substitution de monnaie en Argentine, au Mexique et en Uruguay) (Sustitución de moneda en Argentina, México y Uruguay)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 629-667, December.
    33. Mr. Adam Bennett & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1999. "Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    36. Edward Buffie & Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Catherine Pattillo, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 126-160, June.
    37. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-597, June.
    38. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, A.M., 2017. "Dilemmas of externally financing domestic expenditures: Rethinking the political economy of aid and social protection through the monetary transformation dilemma," ISS Working Papers - General Series 629, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.
    3. Oliver Morrissey & Lionel Roger & Lars Spreng, 2019. "Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease?," Discussion Papers 2019-07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Portillo, Rafael & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 116-129.
    5. Pedro M G Martins, 2010. "Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Discussion Papers 10/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    6. Germaschewski, Yin, 2020. "Stabilization policy, infrastructure investment, and welfare in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 322-339.
    7. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and implications for macroeconomic aggregates: the case of Uganda," Research Reports 102489, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    8. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Do Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 1110, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Christopher S Adam, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2007/180, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and its implications for macroeconomic aggregates: The case of Uganda," Research Series 113615, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    11. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/055, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
    13. Alin OPREANA & Simona VINEREAN, 2015. "Analysis of the Economic Research Context after the Outbreak of the Economic Crisis of 2007-2009," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 77-92.
    14. Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Andrew Berg & Jan Gottschalk & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios," IMF Working Papers 2010/160, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    16. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/216, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
    3. Edward F. Buffie & Manoj Atolia, 2011. "Exchange‐Rate‐based Stabilisation, Durables Consumption and the Stylised Facts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1130-1160, September.
    4. Christopher Adam & Stephen O’Connell & Edward Buffie, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules For Manging Aid Surges In Africa," WEF Working Papers 0016, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    5. Christopher Adam & Stephen O’Connell & Edward Buffie, 2009. "Aid Volatility, Monetary Policy Rules and the Capital Account in African Economies," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Mr. Thierry Tressel & Mr. Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 2006/145, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    8. Kang Yong Tan & David Vines, 2007. "Woodford goes to Africa," WEF Working Papers 0029, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    9. Edward Sennoga & Lacina Balma, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability in Africa: Accelerating the post‐COVID‐19 recovery through improved public finances," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 8-33, July.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    11. Carlos Végh, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and Inflation Targeting: Some Basic Equivalences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Fernando Lefort & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Serie (ed.),Indexation, Inflation and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 151-182, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Buffie, Edward F., 1999. "Optimal trade liberalization and the welfare costs of imperfect credibility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 371-398, April.
    13. Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Christopher S Adam, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2007/180, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Salifou Issoufou & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mouhamadou Bamba Diop & Kalidou Thiaw, 2014. "Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal," IMF Working Papers 2014/044, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mr. Bernard J Laurens & Mr. Jaime Cardoso, 1998. "Managing Capital Flows: Lessons From the Experience of Chile," IMF Working Papers 1998/168, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Asea, Patrick K & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1996. "Economic Growth and Economic Consequences of External Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: Introduction," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 1-6, October.
    17. Siregar, Reza & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2005. "Sources of variations between the inflation rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the post-1997 crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 867-884, October.
    18. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    19. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ms. Jayasri Dutta, 2002. "Dread of Depreciation: Measuring Real Exchange Rate Interventions," IMF Working Papers 2002/063, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aid; Sterilization; Currency Substitution; Seigniorage; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2006-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Coffey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csaoxuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.