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Riding the Wave: Monetary Responses to Aid Surges in Low-Income Countries

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  • Edward Buffie
  • Christopher Adam
  • Stephen O'Connell
  • Catherine Patillo

Abstract

We focus on the management of highly persistent shocks to aid flows, including HIPC or MDG-related increases in net flows, in the presence of currency substitution by the domestic private sector. Such shocks have beneficent long-run effects, but when currency substitution is high they can produce dramatic macroeconomic management problems in the short run. What is the appropriate mix of money and exchange rate targeting in such cases, and the role of temporary sterilization? We analyze these and related issues in an intertemporal optimizing model that allows a portion of aid to be devoted to reducing the government’s seigniorage requirement. Our results argue that a managed float, with little or no sterilization of increases in the monetary base, is the most attractive approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Buffie & Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Catherine Patillo, 2006. "Riding the Wave: Monetary Responses to Aid Surges in Low-Income Countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2006-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, A.M., 2017. "Dilemmas of externally financing domestic expenditures: Rethinking the political economy of aid and social protection through the monetary transformation dilemma," ISS Working Papers - General Series 629, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.
    3. Oliver Morrissey & Lionel Roger & Lars Spreng, 2019. "Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease?," Discussion Papers 2019-07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Portillo, Rafael & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 116-129.
    5. Pedro M G Martins, 2010. "Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Discussion Papers 10/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    6. Germaschewski, Yin, 2020. "Stabilization policy, infrastructure investment, and welfare in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 322-339.
    7. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and implications for macroeconomic aggregates: the case of Uganda," Research Reports 102489, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    8. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Do Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 1110, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Christopher S Adam, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2007/180, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Alin OPREANA & Simona VINEREAN, 2015. "Analysis of the Economic Research Context after the Outbreak of the Economic Crisis of 2007-2009," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 77-92.
    11. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and its implications for macroeconomic aggregates: The case of Uganda," Research Series 113615, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    12. Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Andrew Berg & Jan Gottschalk & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios," IMF Working Papers 2010/160, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    14. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/055, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.
    16. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aid; Sterilization; Currency Substitution; Seigniorage; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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