IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/afrdev/v34y2022is1ps8-s33.html

Fiscal sustainability in Africa: Accelerating the post‐COVID‐19 recovery through improved public finances

Author

Listed:
  • Edward Sennoga
  • Lacina Balma

Abstract

The article examines the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on economies in Africa through the application of a novel Debt, Investment and Growth model with a segmented Labor market (DIG‐Labor). The pandemic is modeled via supply shock that disrupts economic activities in countries in Africa, followed by effects on household consumption behavior and welfare, and business investment decisions. The DIG‐Labor model is calibrated to account for informality, which is a key characteristic of economies in Africa. We find that, in the absence of appropriate remedial measures, the COVID‐19 pandemic reduces employment in the formal and informal sectors and scales back consumption for savers and non‐savers, with the reduction in consumption being more pronounced for savers. These contractions lead to an economic recession in Africa and widen the fiscal and current account deficits, among others. The effects of fiscal stimulus packages in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic and various financing mechanisms are also examined. A key finding is that various policy responses to the emerging COVID‐19 induced macroeconomic imbalances have diverse implications, which should be carefully examined to mitigate the negative consequences while maximizing the opportunities for a swift, stronger and more inclusive economic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Sennoga & Lacina Balma, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability in Africa: Accelerating the post‐COVID‐19 recovery through improved public finances," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 8-33, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:34:y:2022:i:s1:p:s8-s33
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12648
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12648
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8268.12648?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    2. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2004. "The road to pro-poor growth in Zambia: past lessons and future challenges," DSGD discussion papers 16, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Colombo, Emilio & Menna, Lorenzo & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2019. "Informality and the labor market effects of financial crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Rawaa Harati, 2013. "Heterogeneity in the Egyptian informal labour market: choice or obligation?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00820783, HAL.
    5. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    6. Yannick Fosso Djoumessi, 2021. "The adverse impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic on the labor market in Cameroon," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 31-44, April.
    7. Rawaa Harati, 2013. "Heterogeneity in the Egyptian informal labour market: choice or obligation?," Post-Print halshs-00820783, HAL.
    8. Blundell, Richard, 1988. "Consumer Behaviour: Theory and Empirical Evidence--a Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 16-65, March.
    9. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-597, June.
    10. Rawaa Harati, 2013. "Heterogeneity in the Egyptian informal labour market: choice or obligation?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 123(4), pages 623-639.
    11. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    12. Günther, Isabel & Launov, Andrey, 2012. "Informal employment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 88-98.
    13. Ali Madai Boukar & Olivier Mbock & Jean‐Marc Malambwe Kilolo, 2021. "The impacts of the Covid‐19 pandemic on employment in Cameroon: A general equilibrium analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 88-101, April.
    14. Antonio Estache & Jean-François Perrault & Luc Savard, 2008. "Impact Of Infrastructure Spending In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cge Modeling Approach," Cahiers de recherche 08-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    15. Ilan Strauss & Gilad Isaacs & Josh Rosenberg, 2021. "The effect of shocks to GDP on employment in SADC member states during COVID‐19 using a Bayesian hierarchical model," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 221-237, April.
    16. Peet, Evan D. & Fink, Günther & Fawzi, Wafaie, 2015. "Returns to education in developing countries: Evidence from the living standards and measurement study surveys," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 69-90.
    17. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    18. Rawaa Harati, 2013. "Heterogeneity in the Egyptian informal labour market: choice or obligation?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13032, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    19. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J Müller, 2023. "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1318-1347.
    20. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gedion Onyango, 2024. "The Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery, Government Performance and Lived Poverty Conditions in Kenya," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 369-387, March.
    2. Ikechukwu Andrew Mobosi & Patrick Onochie Okonta, 2025. "Revenue structure and budgetary choice in Nigeria: implication for fiscal sustainability of the states government," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 828-850, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carla Canelas, 2019. "Informality and poverty in Ecuador," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1097-1115, December.
    2. Mónica Jiménez, 2017. "La calidad del empleo y sus consecuencias para el mercado de trabajo de las medianas y grandes empresas y del sector público de argentina," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 40(79), pages 133-180.
    3. Carla Canelas, 2015. "Poverty and informality in Ecuador," WIDER Working Paper Series 112, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Floridi, A. & Wagner, N. & Cameron, J., 2016. "A study of Egyptian and Palestine trans-formal firms – A neglected category operating in the borderland between formality and informality," ISS Working Papers - General Series 619, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    5. Carla Canelas, 2015. "Poverty and informality in Ecuador," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-112, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Buffie, Edward F., 1999. "Optimal trade liberalization and the welfare costs of imperfect credibility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 371-398, April.
    8. Hanan Nazier & Racha Ramadan, 2015. "Informality and Poverty: A Causality Dilemma with Application to Egypt," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-4.
    9. Salifou Issoufou & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mouhamadou Bamba Diop & Kalidou Thiaw, 2014. "Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal," IMF Working Papers 2014/044, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:bic:journl:v:23:y:2023:i:1:p:2173915 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/216, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Michael Funke & Raphael Terasa, 2020. "Will Germany's Temporary VAT Tax Rates Cut as Part of the Covid-19 Fiscal Stimulus Package Boost Consumption and Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8765, CESifo.
    14. Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger & Jan in ’t Veld, 2020. "The COVID19-Pandemic in the EU: Macroeconomic Transmission and Economic Policy Response," European Economy - Discussion Papers 127, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Kenneth W. Clements & Antony Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 1996. "Applied Demand Analysis: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(216), pages 63-81, March.
    16. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.
    17. Buffie, Edward & Adam, Christopher & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1378-1395, November.
    18. Emanuele Colombo Azimonti & Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Covid-19 supply-side fiscal policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 208, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    19. Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2024. "Getting ready for the next pandemic: supply- side policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 219, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Samuel Kwaku Agyei & Zangina Isshaq & Siaw Frimpong & Anokye Mohammed Adam & Ahmed Bossman & Oliver Asiamah, 2021. "COVID‐19 and food prices in sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 102-113, April.
    21. Atolia, Manoj, 2007. "Trade liberalization and rising wage inequality in Latin America: Reconciliation with HOS theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 467-494, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:34:y:2022:i:s1:p:s8-s33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdbgci.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.