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Impact Of Infrastructure Spending In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cge Modeling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Estache

    () (World Bank and, the European Centre for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics at the Free University of Brussels)

  • Jean-François Perrault

    () (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)

  • Luc Savard

    () (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)

Abstract

In this paper we construct an archetype CGE model and apply it to six sub-Saharan African countries to explore the impact of scaling up infrastructure in African countries. As part of the debate on the importance of scaling up infrastructure to stimulate growth and provide a push to African economies, some analysts have raised concerns on providing massive financing for the construction of these infrastructures as the process can create major distortion in the economies and have a negative impact by creating Dutch disease symptoms (Adam and Bevan 2006). This study aims to provide some insight into this debate. It draws from the infrastructure productivity literature to postulate positive productive externalities of new infrastructure and Fay and Yepes (2003) for operating cost associated with new infrastructure. We compare various infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. These investments scenarios are compared to non productive investment that can be interpreted as a business as usual scenario. Our results show that increase in infrastructure investment does produce slight Dutch disease effects but the negative impacts are strongly dependent on the type of investments performed and type of financing scheme used. Moreover, the growth effects we introduced contribute to attenuate the negative effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Estache & Jean-François Perrault & Luc Savard, 2008. "Impact Of Infrastructure Spending In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cge Modeling Approach," Cahiers de recherche 08-03, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
  • Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:08-03
    as

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    File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-0803.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
    2. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 1176-1196.
    3. Jung, Hong-Sang & Thorbecke, Erik, 2003. "The impact of public education expenditure on human capital, growth, and poverty in Tanzania and Zambia: a general equilibrium approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 701-725, November.
    4. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    6. Terry McKinley, 2005. "Why is ?The Dutch disease? always a disease? the macroeconomic consequences of scaling up ODA," Working Papers 10, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    7. Anderson, James E. & Martin, Will, 1998. "Evaluating public expenditures when governments must rely on distortionary taxation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1981, The World Bank.
    8. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1993. "Does public capital affect private sector performance? : An analysis of the Spanish case, 1964-1988," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 179-185, July.
    9. Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
    10. Jim Davies, "undated". "Empirical Evidence on Human Capital Externalities," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-11, Department of Finance Canada.
    11. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1160-1183.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luc Savard, 2010. "Scaling up infrastructure spending in the Philippines: A CGE top-down bottom-up microsimulation approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 43-59.
    2. Boccanfuso, Dorothée & Richard, Patrick & Savard, Luc, 2013. "Parametric and nonparametric income distribution estimators in CGE micro-simulation modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 892-899.
    3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & G. Rodolphe A. Missinhoun & Luc Savard, 2010. "Réformes economiques et croissance pro-pauvre : une application macro-micro aux Philippines," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 76(3), pages 257-288.
    4. Luc Savard & Dorothee Boccanfuso & Jonathan Goyette & Véronique Gosselin & Clovis Tanekou Mangoua, 2014. "An impact analysis of the impact of climate change and adaptation policies on the forestry sector in Quebec. A dyanamic macro-micro framework," EcoMod2014 6787, EcoMod.
    5. Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & Edward F Buffie & Catherine A Pattillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability; Putting together the Pieces," IMF Working Papers 12/144, International Monetary Fund.
    6. N. Meltem Daysal & Mircea Trandafir & Reyn van Ewijk, 2015. "Saving Lives at Birth: The Impact of Home Births on Infant Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, pages 28-50.
    7. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Marcelin Joanis & Patrick Richard & Luc Savard, 2014. "A comparative analysis of funding schemes for public infrastructure spending in Quebec," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2653-2664, August.
    8. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Véronique Gosselin & Jonathan Goyette & Luc Savard & Clovis Tanekou Mangoua, 2014. "An impact analysis of climate change and adaptation policies on the forestry sector in Quebec. A dynamic macro-micro framework," Cahiers de recherche 14-04, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    9. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, "undated". "Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015," Working Papers 2017-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    10. Kate Bayliss, 2009. "Private Sector Participation in African Infrastructure: Is it Worth the Risk?," Working Papers 55, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    11. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Marcelin Joanis & Mathieu Paquet & Luc Savard, 2015. "Impact de productivité des infrastructures: Une application au Québec," Cahiers de recherche 15-06, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment externalities; foreign aid; exchange rate; fiscal reforms;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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