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Le rôle du capital public dans la croissance des pays en développement au cours des années 80

  • Sébastien Dessus
  • Rémy Herrera
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    Cette étude analyse les liens entre la croissance et l’investissement public au cours des années 80 à l’aide d’un modèle économétrique d’équations simultanées, estimé sur un échantillon de 28 pays en développement sur onze ans (1981-91). Ce modèle décrit les déterminants de la croissance et de l’investissement public et privé. Le capital public est un facteur positif de la croissance, tout comme le capital humain ou le capital productif privé. Cependant, la formation du stock de capital public a généré des effets d’éviction, au détriment de la constitution du stock de capital productif privé. Nos résultats suggèrent qu’un nombre important des pays de l’échantillon s’est éloigné d’une situation optimale pour la croissance de partage du capital disponible entre les secteurs publics et privés ... This paper analyses the links between growth and public capital for a sample of 28 developing countries over eleven years (1981-91). We estimate a simultaneous equations model to explain the GDP, as well as public and private capital formation. Public, private and human capital are positive and significant factors of growth. Nevertheless, public capital formation has produced crowding-out effects, since the budget constraint was differentiated between public and private sectors. Our results suggest that the majority of the sample countries tended rather to diverge from the optimal allocation of capital — in terms of growth — between public and private sectors ...

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/702214631326
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    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 115.

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    Date of creation: Jul 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:115-fr
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