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The road to pro-poor growth in Zambia

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  • Thurlow, James
  • Wobst, Peter

Abstract

"Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost three-quarters of the population were considered poor at the start of the 1990s, with a vast majority of these people concentrated in rural and remote areas. This extreme poverty arose in spite of Zambia's seemingly promising prospects following independence. To better understand the failure of growth and poverty-reduction this paper first considers the relationship between the structure of growth and Zambia's evolving political economy. A strong urban-bias has shaped the country's growth path leading to an economy both artificially and unsustainably distorted in favor of manufacturing and mining at the expense of rural areas. For agriculture it was the maize-bias of public policies that undermined export and growth potential within this sector....Sustained investment and economic growth during recent years suggest a possible change of fortune for Zambia. In light of this renewed growth, the paper uses a dynamic and spatially-disaggregated economy-wide model linked to a household survey to examine the potential for future poverty-reduction....Although agricultural growth is essential for substantial poverty-reduction, the country's large poor urban population necessitates growth in non-agriculture. The findings suggest that returning to a copper-led growth path is not pro-poor and that non-mining urban growth, although undermined by foreign exchange shortages and inadequate private investment, is likely to be preferable for reducing poverty." Authors' Abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2004. "The road to pro-poor growth in Zambia," DSGD discussion papers 16, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:16
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    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/dsgdp16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre-Richard AGÉNOR & Derek H. C. CHEN & Michael GRIMM, "undated". "Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies," EcoMod2004 330600002, EcoMod.
    2. Bigsten, Arne & Levin, Jorgen & Persson, Hakan, 2001. "Debt Relief and Growth: A study of Zambia and Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series 104, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Bigsten , Arne & Kayizzi-Mugerwa, Steve, 2000. "The Political Economy of Policy Failure in Zambia," Working Papers in Economics 23, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buffie, Edward F., 2009. "Public sector layoffs, severance pay, and inflation in the small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 987-1005, October.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Yu, Bingxin & Kanyarukiga, Sam, 2007. "Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Rwanda:," IFPRI discussion papers 689, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Bigsten, Arne & Tengstam, Sven, 2008. "Smallholder Income Diversification in Zambia: The Way Out of Poverty?," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54490, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    4. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Exploring Growth Linkages and Market Opportunities for Agriculture in Southern Africa," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 104-137.
    6. Blasco, Lorea Barron & Devadoss, Stephen & Stodick, Leroy, 2006. "The Doha Round Declaration on Cotton: A Catalyst for Poverty Reduction in Africa?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21161, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copper mines and mining ; Poverty alleviation Africa Zambia ; Manufacturing industries ; Spatial analysis (Statistics) ; Household surveys ;

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