Prospects for growth and poverty reduction i n Zambia, 2001-2015
"Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Africa. Despite substantial reform during the 1990s, the economy has remained heavily dependent on urban-based mining. Copper's long-standing dominance led to a strong bias against agriculture, which undermined the sector's growth and export potential. Consequently poverty has remained concentrated within marginalized rural areas. Recent volatility in copper exports and growing foreign debt indicate the need for further economic diversification and pro-poor growth. These needs have been clearly identified in the country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which outlines a series of policy objectives aimed at combating HIV/AIDS, reversing the deterioration of education and rural infrastructure, and accelerating agricultural growth. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential impact on inequality and poverty of the key PRSP policies, as well as the effects of foreign debt forgiveness and changes in the copper sector. The findings suggest that, in the absence of very rapid growth, the pro-poor policies outlined in the PRSP will not enable Zambia to reach its Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Achieving this goal will require gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at an annual rate of over ten percent. Reduction in poverty can however be achieved by addressing HIV/AIDS, which currently reduces annual GDP growth by one percent. Furthermore, substantial poverty-reduction can occur through the acceleration of agricultural growth, although limited market opportunities necessitates supporting investment in rural infrastructure. Overall, the potential of the agricultural sector depends on the government's commitment to reforms and the continued removal of the antiagricultural bias created by the dominant copper sector." Authors' Abstract
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1201 Eye Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005-3915|
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
- Bigsten, Arne & Levin, Jorgen & Persson, Hakan, 2001. "Debt Relief and Growth: A study of Zambia and Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series 104, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Pro-poor growth : A primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank.
- Guy Scott, 2002. "Zambia: Structural adjustment, rural livelihoods and sustainable development," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 405-418.
- Löfgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman & Thurlow, James, 2002. "Macro and micro effects of recent and potential shocks to copper mining in Zambia," TMD discussion papers 99, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Pillai, Vijayan K. & Sunil, T. S. & Gupta, Rashmi, 2003. "AIDS Prevention in Zambia: Implications for Social Services," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 149-161, January.
- Jimenez, Emmanuel & DEC, 1994. "Human and physical infrastructure : public investment and pricing policies in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1281, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.