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Macro and micro effects of recent and potential shocks to copper mining in Zambia

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  • Löfgren, Hans
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

"As a result of Zambia's dependence on copper mining, both the falling world copper price and the possible withdrawal of investment from the mining sector might seriously threaten economic growth and stability. Accordingly, the impact of a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of the copper mining sector are modeled using a 1995 computable general equilibrium model for Zambia. Results indicate that the fall in world copper prices will place significant pressure on non-mining exports, with much of the burden of raising foreign exchange falling on the food, beverages and tobacco, and textiles and garment sectors. However, the agricultural and agro-related industries are the most export-responsive (albeit from initially low levels) to the forced depreciation of the currency. The complete collapse of copper mining in Zambia is shown to have a substantial and negative impact on the economy. The fall in production and exports for this important sector leads to a considerable depreciation of the currency in order to fill the resulting gap in foreign earnings. In the short-run, real GDP is reduced by as much as 16 percent. Although the largest increase in exports arises within the food, beverages and tobacco sector, the agricultural and agro-related sectors show considerable potential as sources of foreign exchange earnings. It is found that both the fall in world prices and the reduction in mining output lead to a fall in total real household consumption. However, given that rural households derive a relatively high share of their income from tradable sectors that benefit from the depreciation, the shocks lead to a progressive redistribution of household incomes and consumption. The impact of providing an injection of foreign exchange into the country is found to involve a trade-off between alleviating the negative welfare effects of the copper mining shocks and the provision of incentives for structural adjustment. Furthermore, targeted capital investment in highly export-responsive sectors reduces the necessary depreciation of the real exchange rate, and the need for structural adjustment in other areas of the economy." Authors' Abstract.

Suggested Citation

  • Löfgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman & Thurlow, James, 2002. "Macro and micro effects of recent and potential shocks to copper mining in Zambia," TMD discussion papers 99, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:99
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Unknown, 2001. "General Discussion," Proceedings of the 6th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 2000: Trade Liberalization Under NAFTA: Report Card on Agriculture 16839, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
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    1. Lofgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman & Thurlow, James, 2003. "Copper Crisis And Agricultural Renaissance In Zambia: An Economy-Wide Analysis," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25805, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Mauricio Bittencourt & Donald Larson & David Kraybill, 2010. "Regional Short-Run Effects Of Trade Liberalization In Brazil," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 65-85.
    3. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Mark Horridge & Renato Vargas, 2016. "A Conceptual Framework for Integrated Economic-Environmental Modelling," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0202, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    4. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "General equilibrium measures of agricultural policy bias in fifteen developing countries," TMD discussion papers 105, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. World Bank, 2005. "Agriculture and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals," World Bank Publications - Reports 8455, The World Bank Group.
    6. Pereira, Mauricio & De Miguel, Carlos J. & Ulloa, Andrés & O'Ryan, Raúl, 2009. "Síndrome holandés, regalías mineras y políticas de gobierno para un país dependiente de recursos naturales: el cobre en Chile," Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo 5681, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Lofgren, Hans & Thurlow, James & Robinson, Sherman, 2004. "Prospects for growth and poverty reduction i n Zambia, 2001-2015," DSGD discussion papers 11, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. World Bank, 2004. "Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 1. Main Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 15666, The World Bank Group.
    9. Bittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo & Kraybill, David S. & Larson, Donald W., 2006. "Consequences Of Trade Liberalization On Poverty And Income Distribution In Brazil," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21128, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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